DrCheckRaise - Axman's Corner

Poker Strategy -- The Top Five No-Limit Hold'em Lessons (no replies)

Axman — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 22:09:39 -0800

Poker Strategy -- The Top Five No-Limit Hold'em Lessons

Ed Miller Breaks It Down To The Basics

If I were teaching a new player to play no-limit hold’em, and my goal were to get this player up to a professional level of play, how would I do it? What would my lessons look like?

Read more: [www.cardplayer.com]

A List of Fallacies (1 reply)

Axman — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 17:47:55 -0700

A List of Fallacies

This also saves me from creating a list of my own.

Read more: [en.wikipedia.org]

Lost in the Shuffle: Luck and Games (2 replies)

Axman — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 17:48:58 -0700

Lost in the Shuffle: Luck and Games

Richard Garfield
Monday, November 29, 2010

You Really Can't Win Them All

(originally printed in Duelist #19, October 1997)

Determining if a game is more luck than skill is an exercise game critics and players often engage in. This is even more important in law: there are many places where you can play games of skill for money, but doing so with games of luck is gambling, and so is kept in the capable hands of the state.

I'd Rather Be Lucky Than Skillful

I believe that the standard dichotomy of luck vs. skill is misleading. This comparison implies that the more luck there is, the less skill and vice versa. To me, this is not at all true. The reward for skill depends on how much luck there is in a game, but a game that is mostly determined by luck can have an enormous amount of skill.

A couple of examples will demonstrate this. The first is rando-chess, which is played as standard chess, but after each turn you roll two dice. Roll 12 and you win! This game has as much skill as chess, but also a lot more luck and much less reward for skill. The second example is pikanumber, in which each player holds out a number of fingers; whoever holds out more wins. There isn't any luck in this game and not much skill, but there is a very high reward for what little skill there is—you never lose. Skillful players will always draw (unless one has more fingers than the other).

The amounts of skill and luck in a game are unrelated, though they have a related influence on the game's outcome. If you want to minimize luck, you should play the game as many times as possible. A rank beginner has a good chance of beating anyone in a single hand of poker. But string the hands into sessions and the sessions into seasons of poker, and the more skillful player will consistently win.

I Played the Lottery 10,000,000 Times and Finally Got Lucky!

When it struck me that there was luck in rock-paper-scissors, I changed my way of thinking about it. As a child I had assumed it was a game of pure skill because the outcome was entirely determined by the players. Then I learned the strategy that can't be taken advantage of: choose randomly, giving each move equal weight.

There are any number of ways to choose moves randomly. I could roll dice; use the second hand of my watch as a random number generator; think of a word and count the letters in it; or try to reach a mental state in which I am a random-move generator. Even if there is not actually true randomness, it appears that way to the other player. My opponent might be able to take advantage of patterns in my play, but can't be sure of what I am going to do in a particular game. Tracking the flow of a mind is no easier than predicting the path of a set of dice.

This leads me to a utilitarian definition of luck. If I cannot predict the outcome with certainty, there is luck involved—even if I find a reason for losing after the fact. The other players planned to team up. The dice were weighted. The cards came up in the wrong order. Whatever the situation, the truly skillful player attempts to judge probability and payoff as best he or she can, and plays accordingly.

This means that by my definition there is no luck in tic-tac-toe between people who know the game. Unless a player is hopelessly distracted, the game will always end in a draw. It also means that there is luck in chess. When I play someone of comparable skill, no one can predict the outcome for certain. Against a more skilled player—even Kasparov—I could blindly walk into a superior line of play, not realizing the long-term implications of my moves.

In chess both players are exploring a game tree that neither fully knows, making moves they believe lead to favorable branches. Even if one player can see further than the other along the game tree, there is a chance for the other player. The only way chess can have no luck is if it is fully understood, like tic-tac-toe, a sterile and dead game.

Hence, any game whose outcome is not a foregone conclusion has a degree of luck. Chess and basketball allow skill to influence that luck a great deal. Roulette and slot machines allow little or no influence on that luck. But if you ever manage to reduce the luck to zero, then you have killed the game.

[Emphasis added]

Read more: [www.wizards.com]

Inside Ungar's Mind (no replies)

Axman — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 11:52:07 -0700

Inside Ungar's Mind

Stu Ungar is often regarded as the greatest poker player ever. Affectionately known as "The Kid," he is one of only two players to win the World Series of Poker Main Event three times. He was inducted into the Poker Hall of Fame in 2001, three years after he passed away from a heart condition.

Up until recently, there was little visual evidence of Ungar's abilities at a poker table. Aside from limited television coverage of Ungar at the WSOP, most of what we know about him comes from those who played against him during his prime. Mike Sexton, for example, once called Ungar the "most talented player who’s ever walked on the planet Earth."

Last week, however, WSOP.com Managing Editor Jess Welman stumbled upon some pieces of poker history that offer some insight into Ungar's playing style. While doing some research for the upcoming WSOP Main Event final table, Welman found the hand-for-hand coverage of WSOP Main Event final tables from 1995 until 2000. The reporting was done by Tom Sims, who relayed all of the action into a micro-cassette recorder and later wrote it down.

Welman shared the pieces of poker history with the community this week. And taking it one step further was poker pro Clayton Newman, who looked over each hand from the 1997 WSOP Main Event final table won by Ungar and examined the play using statistics and data used in the analytical approach to today's game.

Newman's findings shed some light on why Ungar was levels above most poker players of his time. "Ungar played like a solid lagTAG, vpip in the low thirties and PFR in the low twenties," Newman said after studying the entire final table. "I also like that he kept his raises on the smaller side (3.5x to 3x), as I'm told most live pros would routinely 4x or 5x it and would have inconsistent preflop raise sizing (3x with 55, 6x with AK etc). Ungar stayed consistent and on the smaller side."

We highly recommend taking the time to read through Newman's analysis. You can find it in his blog at LeggoPoker.com.

Read more:

[www.pokernews.com]

[www.leggopoker.com]

Thinking out loud...politics (1 reply)

Axman — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 13:24:14 -0700

If the incumbent wins the upcoming presidential election (11/12), which line do I get in to get my "fair share"?

It won't matter which party I belong to, right? Right?

A List of Cognitive Biases (1 reply)

Axman — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 17:47:05 -0700

A List of Cognitive Biases

This saves me from creating a list of my own.

Read more: [en.wikipedia.org]

Court Rules Poker Is a Game of Skill, But … (no replies)

Axman — Sun, 16 Sep 2012 09:35:30 -0700

Court Rules Poker Is a Game of Skill, But …

Sunday Op-Ed: (Now What?)

by Prof. I. Nelson Rose, Sep 16, 2012 | 8:00 am

A federal judge in New York shook the gaming world in August 2012 by ruling that poker is predominantly a game of skill and therefore not “gambling” under the federal Illegal Gambling Business Act (“IGBA”).

Read more: [pokerati.com]

Top-10 ridiculous gambling laws (no replies)

Axman — Sat, 08 Sep 2012 15:47:51 -0700

Top-10 ridiculous gambling laws

Several states have recently made moves to make sports betting legal within their states. The most notable effort is New Jersey’s, which is on a collision course with the U.S. Supreme Court over the constitutionality of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), which makes traditional sports betting (e.g., single-game spread bets) illegal outside of Nevada.

PASPA is a silly law that stands in conflict with nearly every other gambling law in the United States in that the legality of different forms of gambling has always been decided by the states.

But PASPA isn't the only ridiculous gambling law out there. There are plenty of others – enough, in fact, to make a top-10 list.

Read more: [aarontodd.casinocitytimes.com]

Quantitative Poker: 20 thoughts on skill vs. chance in poker (1 reply)

Axman — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 11:09:36 -0700

Quantitative Poker

math beyond the odds

20 thoughts on skill vs. chance in poker

Part 1: Predominance between skill and chance is not well-defined.
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 2: Richard Garfield on luck in games
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 3: Outcome-based approaches fail on populations of similarly-skilled players
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 4: What if an outcome-based approach specifies observing "average" players?
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 5: On intentionally losing
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 6: An impractical dependence on game duration
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 7: Tournaments vs. cash games
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 8: How are we measuring skill, anyway?
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 9: Common intuitive proxies for skill and chance in games
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 10: Games of skill vs. "involving skills"
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 11: Why not blackjack or other casino games?
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 12: Why not sports betting and investing?
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 13: On control and equal challenges
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 14: Does rate of showdown matter?
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 15: Does rake matter?
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 16: Does duplicate poker have higher skill relative to chance?
Read more: [www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 17: Why does poker need randomness?
[www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 18: The relationship between level of stakes and degree of chance
[www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 19: The German "predominantly chance" study
[www.quantitativepoker.com]

Part 20: Summary and assessment of approaches to predominance
[www.quantitativepoker.com]

New Study Suggests Poker Is Game Of Skill (no replies)

Axman — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 13:48:28 -0700

New Study Suggests Online Poker Is Game Of Skill

Dutch Academics Analyse Over 400 Million Online Cash Game Poker Player-Hands And Discover “Skill Is An Important Factor in Online Poker”

Read more: [www.cardplayer.com]

To view the full report visit [papers.ssrn.com]

Top-10 moments in online poker history (no replies)

Axman — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 12:57:51 -0700

Top-10 moments in online poker history

Two weeks ago, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) released a long-awaited announcement that it had come to a $547 million settlement with PokerStars in its Black Friday case that would also result in the world's largest online poker room acquiring the assets of Full Tilt Poker. Players rejoiced as they learned that their Full Tilt account balances would be paid in full (though we're still waiting on word on what Americans will need to do to claim their money).

It was certainly a big day in the history of online poker. But was it the biggest? The top-10 moments in online poker history are laid out below.

Read more: [aarontodd.casinocitytimes.com]

How You Use Your Brain Determines How Successfully You Bluff (no replies)

Axman — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 12:54:35 -0700

How You Use Your Brain Determines How Successfully You Bluff

Research shows that the portion of the brain used to bluff a computer differs from that used to bluff a human.

Read more: [pokerfuse.com]

Champions Declared in AI Poker Tournament (no replies)

Axman — Thu, 26 Jul 2012 22:36:16 -0700

Champions Declared in AI Poker Tournament

This is the third and final blog post I’ll be writing about the Annual Computer Poker Competition that recently concluded at the ongoing AAAI conference in Toronto. I’m a member of the competing team from the University of Alberta’s Computer Poker Research Group (CPRG).

Read more: [spectrum.ieee.org]

Why Poker Should Be Considered a Game of Skill (Graphic) (no replies)

Axman — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 00:57:58 -0700

(Graphic) Why Poker Should Be Considered a Game of Skill

While poker may seem obviously a game of skill to some, the general consensus among those who oppose the expansion of the game is quite the opposite. Unfortunately, the argument isn't simply an academic one; whether poker is a game dominated by skill or by chance is a question with serious legal implications.

Read more: [instantpokermoney.com]

Greed (no replies)

Axman — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 19:17:26 -0700

Greed (A Thought Experiment)

Let's say there are two people.

One person has more wealth. Some of the wealth may have been obtained as a result of greed.

The other person has less wealth. Still, some of the wealth may also have been obtained as a result of greed.

The person with less wealth believes that the person with more wealth should give them a "fair share".

Who is more greedy?

What is a "fair share"?

Definition of GREED

: a selfish and excessive desire for more of something (as money) than is needed
[www.merriam-webster.com]

Definition of WEALTH

1 obsolete : weal, welfare
2 : abundance of valuable material possessions or resources
3 : abundant supply : profusion
4 a : all property that has a money value or an exchangeable value
4 b : all material objects that have economic utility; especially : the stock of useful goods having economic value in existence at any one time
[www.merriam-webster.com]

The Great Debate: Is Poker More Skill or Luck? The Pros Weigh In (no replies)

Axman — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 19:26:38 -0700

The Great Debate: Is Poker More Skill or Luck? The Pros Weigh In

One of the biggest debates in poker is the skill versus luck debate. We decided to ask some of your favorite pros what their thoughts were on the subject.

Read more: [www.pokernews.com]

Position (poker) (2 replies)

Axman — Wed, 20 Jun 2012 22:51:07 -0700

Position (poker)

Position in poker refers to the order in which players are seated around the table and the related poker strategy implications. Players who act first are in "early position"; players who act later are in "late position". A player "has position" on opponents acting before him and is "out of position" to opponents acting after him.[1] Because players act in clockwise order, a player "has position" on opponents seated to his right, except when the opponent has the button and certain cases in the first betting round of games with blinds.

Read more: [en.wikipedia.org])

The Wizard of Odds - Texas Hold'em (no replies)

Axman — Thu, 31 May 2012 18:15:14 -0700

Texas Hold’em

• Rules
• Examples
• Hole Card Strategy
• Pot Odds
• Hand Strength Calculator
• Further Reading
• Outside Links

Click here: [wizardofodds.com]

Initial Hold'em Hands in Rank Order — 2-Player Game

Click here: [wizardofodds.com]

Initial Hold'em Hands in Rank Order — 3-Player Game

Click here: [wizardofodds.com]

Initial Hold'em Hands in Rank Order — 4-Player Game

Click here: [wizardofodds.com]

Initial Hold'em Hands in Rank Order — 6-Player Game

Click here: [wizardofodds.com]

Initial Hold'em Hands in Rank Order — 8-Player Game

Click here: [wizardofodds.com]

Initial Hold'em Hands in Rank Order — 10-Player Game

Click here: [wizardofodds.com]

Hand Strength Calculator

Click here: [wizardofodds.com]

Bad Beat Probabilities

Click here: [wizardofodds.com]

Dominated Hand Probabilities

Click here: [wizardofodds.com]

Poker Odds — What Are They?

Click here: [www.cardschat.com]

Poker Strategy

Click here: [www.pokertips.org]

Taxation of Gambling Series of Articles (103 replies)

Axman — Thu, 31 May 2012 13:42:40 -0700

Taxation of Gambling Series of Articles

Poker Strategy (3 replies)

Axman — Wed, 20 Jun 2012 22:28:54 -0700

Poker Strategy

Welcome to our poker strategy section! All of the articles apply to Texas Hold'em, unless otherwise stated. We have strategy articles for poker players of all skill levels. We suggest that newer players master the Beginner and Intermediate concepts before moving on to Advanced and Expert. If you are unsure about the rules of poker, check out our Poker Rules section.

Read more: [www.pokertips.org]

US Online Poker Banned State List (no replies)

Axman — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 14:02:25 -0700

US Online Poker Banned State List

Read more: [www.pokeraffiliatesolutions.com]

Pro Blogs: The Role of Luck in Poker by Alec Torelli (8 replies)

Axman — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 18:20:35 -0700

Pro Blogs: The Role of Luck in Poker by Alec Torelli

March 12, 2012, Alec Torelli

My thoughts on cash games and tournaments. A personal story. The sequal to Filtering the Noise: Cash Games or Tournaments?

My Take

Tournaments by nature are a more simple form of poker. The short span at which they are deep stacked (several hours of play) is quickly over and soon the play becomes rather rudimentary.

It’s not to say there isn’t skill or that experienced tournament players aren’t better at picking off spots, but the margins are much smaller, and a lifetime of playing is not enough to realize one’s true expectation.

It is often said that few can make the transition or be successful at both tournaments and cash games. That’s only half true.

The fact is, few tournament players can win at high-stakes cash games, whereas all high-stakes cash-game players can win at tournaments (not all rectangles are squares, but all squares are rectangles).

The Reasons

The primary reason better players choose cash games is obvious. There is more money. Other reasons are more obscure.

Many poker players prefer to remain anonymous. Being labeled as a professional hinders ones ability to play in the amazing games where politics is involved.

Who wants to play with someone who always wins?

Some avoid tournaments for tax purposes. Sweden for example, home of some of the world’s best poker players, enforces a usurious 50 percent tax rate on tournament winnings. Combined with the rising cost of travel and accommodation, it’s extremely difficult for the tournament poker player to show a long-term profit.

The Difference

Cash games are tougher because the players sit with more money relative to the blinds. The deeper the stacks, the tougher the decisions. This means there is more room for play and more decisions are made on the river.

River decisions are where the tough players exploit opponents the most because you always either have 100 percent or zero percent chance of winning. If you make a mistake, by folding the best hand when the pot is $10,000, it adds up quick. Translation: Far less variance and far less luck.

Tournaments Explained

Although they may be skilled, when tournament superstars win consistently, they are always benefactors of what Nassim Taleb calls the “professional coin flipper.”

If someone enters a coin-flipping contest with 10,000 people, eventually there will be one winner. Surely that man would go on to write a book about how to beat your opponents at flipping coins. But would one really infer that this man is better than you or I?

This may be a bit dramatic, because it implies the analogy that a tournament, like coin flipping, requires no skill. While this isn’t true, the amount that exists is not enough to warrant many of the results.

My Experience

I’ve been fortunate to have a promising tournament record. With that, I’ve received some exposure, sponsors and perhaps undeserved credibility within my industry. As much as I chide some of the aspects of tournaments, there is a ton I’ve gained from my experience in them. For that I am grateful.

The 16-year-old in me still dreams of final-tabling a major televised event. It’s a sensation that will never get old.

Each year as the WSOP approaches, I vow to focus more on cash because that’s how I earn my living. But, when I get up in the morning and hear that the $5,000 event has 1,400 players offering a first prize of $1,000,000, sometimes, I can’t help myself — I’m compelled to play.

Read more: [www.pokernews.com]

Department of Justice: Wire Act Only Applies to Sports Betting (18 replies)

Axman — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 00:20:51 -0800

Department of Justice: Wire Act Only Applies to Sports Betting

WOW!!! Now the question may become: Does online poker involve wagering on "sporting" events or "contests"? :D

Read more: [www.pocketfives.com]

Copy of opinion: [docs.google.com]

Internet Poker Is Sort of Legal!

Read more: [blogs.wsj.com]

Legal Experts See States Wagering on Online Gambling

Read more: [online.wsj.com]

Breaking: Department of Justice Adjusts Stance on Internet Poker

Read more: [www.cardplayer.com]

Boom in Internet gambling ahead? US policy reversal clears the way

Read more: [www.csmonitor.com]

Future Expected Happiness Bias and How It Affects Your Poker (no replies)

Axman — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 11:25:09 -0800

Future Expected Happiness Bias and How It Affects Your Poker

Read more: [themaventraining.com]

Full Tilt Boogie: The UIGEA and You (no replies)

Axman — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 23:48:15 -0800

Full Tilt Boogie: The UIGEA and You

By James McManus
POSTED DECEMBER 8, 2011

The author of Positively Fifth Street and Cowboys Full joins Grantland for a look into the online scandal

Read more: [www.grantland.com]

6 handed DONs (no replies)

LeanAndMean — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 08:07:41 -0800

I really appreciated the video you made on how to play 6 handed DONs. I have made a LOT of money with them. But the Merge network has discontinued these, and now I have to play them on Cake. Why were they axed and please use your influence to bring them back. It was surely profitable for Merge sites. A rake with not a lot of time tied up on the server, what's not to like for them?

PokerNews Book Review: Easy Game 3rd Edition by Andrew Seidman (no replies)

Axman — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 14:34:33 -0800

PokerNews Book Review: Easy Game 3rd Edition by Andrew Seidman

Read more: [www.pokernews.com]

Who to Blame for Black Friday? (no replies)

Axman — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 23:18:04 -0800

Who to Blame for Black Friday?

[www.billrini.com]

How Things Became So Screwed Up At Full Tilt Poker (no replies)

Axman — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 22:00:12 -0700

How Things Became So Screwed Up At Full Tilt Poker

[www.billrini.com]

Trick or Treat! (1 reply)

Axman — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 10:54:14 -0700

If this is your neighbor, we feel sorry for you. Happy Halloween!

video: [www.youtube.com]

[www.pokernews.com]