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Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.

Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
avatar Subject :  Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
Date:       January 13, 2009 03:34AM
This is the first of many topics that will be edited when a player puts forth unarguable evidence that while it can be an effective strategy, it is sloppy or a crutch. Plain and simply, a "leak".

Alot of us have switched to uping our bet sizes to discourage draw poker or loose players from chasing.

Please read Frank's article, it is evidence that there is no cure for "Donk".

Gamblers will Gamble.

Also please read the article written by "Nerice" in Tactical, about overbetting and how it can be a major leak.

For now we will leave it at this:

Sometimes when we overbet we actually giving good players who understand the math of the game well, a correct reason to call by giving good odds. To those without the same knowledge, it appears to be a "Donk" call.

We also scare away customers from a hand that has potential to make good cash or earn great chips.

Why do we overbet? Because we remember the times we got run over.

Do they outweigh the times we didn't when we played the hand right? Turns out in the long run, No. It just stings every time and that we don't forget.

How do we protect against the dreaded flush draw? We shouldn't overbet to do it. If they have flopped 4 to the flush, they are roughly 36% to improve and thats not including overcards or overcards they think they might hold.
Throw in a floped pair and/ or any type of straight draw,
well, How can you blame them? We know through discusion that we sometimes overlook those outs and only notice the flush they were chasing.

There are alot of situations that will give them the right odds to call. No matter how much it pisses us off, its not "donk" poker, its good poker.

What we need to do is consider the style of play of our opponent, and try to keep the pot and the chips we commit, to a level we are comfortable getting away from if they hit. We should also keep it to a size where we can comfortably call a value bet if we smell a bluff or reverse.

Poker is about discipline, right? It can be profitable to fold and save chips that are otherwise gone, right?

We will be able to put the hurt on if the hand holds and scrape a fat pot, right?

Overbetting is effective, but unfortunatelly a leak.

Last thought, I have heard that you should not commit more than 5x BB to a preflop bet in order to control the pressure that you feel to complete the hand or to avoid getting yourself pot commited.

There are of course, fold equity and small stack situations, but consider the message.

Please keep this thread going and add your thoughts.



Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 01/13/2009 06:37AM by jontm.
Re: Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
avatar Subject :  Re: Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
Date:       January 13, 2009 06:30AM
I read over previous hands I have asked members to analyise, think about most of my exits in the ones that mattered, even this last 5k.

All have one thing in common, I lost trying to protect against a draw that had a good chance of hitting and did.


So why do I play wrap hands in Omaha, then play the fish in No limit holdem?

Why do I play str8s and flushes in limit? Why is it my odds and outs game, not NLH?

Why do I count what outs my opponents have in Stud and not NLH?

No limit Holdem is still Poker right? Same hand rankings? Str8 and Flush still beats AA?

How Many times do I have to get stung by the Bees before I quit throwing my chips at the hive?

Time to get to work on the patch.............

Leak #2, Aggresion (NL) can be a crutch for avoiding Poker math facts.........



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/13/2009 06:36AM by jontm.
Re: Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
avatar Subject :  Re: Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
Date:       January 13, 2009 08:54AM
Getting pissed off is heading towards tilting if not already there, it will snowball and cause more loses no matter if you play good or not. Odds say, and odds demand that you will get outdrawn, your aces cracked and so forth. So knowing it is guaranteed to happen, there is no reason to let it bother you when it happens. If they do not have odds, and it happens, your getting upset they failed to give away their chips. That is back words, be happy they failed, not upset! I admit at times I get annoyed or frustrated, but even then I am able to let it go very quickly. Once a hand is over, the hand is over, let it go as your not going back in time and getting a different result. Also do not be hand results oriented, poker is long term and 5,000 hands mean nothing.

Getting run over is not a reason to get frustrated or upset either. When you have the hand, you will get doubled most of the time. There is smart aggression, and there is stupid aggression. Most players that will be running over you are using stupid aggression and you can use it against them. Smart aggression is like the time I was told at a cash table I could play any two, but would not stack off with AK, and stacked the very person that told me that a little while later since I was using smart aggression and his response was to finally play with stupid aggression to try to counter mine.

A situation that pisses many people off about draws, and did me too for a long time until I understood it, now I do it too at times.

If I decide I want to chase a flush draw, you lead into me giving me bad odds. I should fold right? Wait a second, there is possibly a way I can chase legitimately.

If the flush will win the hand. I have more pot equity than the opp does, since I am favored to win the hand at showdown, even though I do not have the best hand currently.

Opp leads giving me bad odds to call to chase on the flop. I raise (I have more pot equity at this point than the opp, so there is nothing wrong with me raising here and depending on stacks and pot size, a shove instead of just a raise is ok.) enough so that if the opp shoves I have at 1.9:1 or better odds to call. The opp shoves, I call and win the hand rivering the flush.

Most will look at that and tell themselves, that idiot raises/shoves/calls all in on a draw and sucks out...

I have done nothing wrong at all, in fact I raised/shoved when I was the favorite to win the hand, and called with correct odds to do so. The opp shoved while behind without being able to throw my odds off. The person that is now upset, is the one that in fact made the mistake.

The correct thing to do when someone raises and you know they are on a draw (I use a FD as the example, but just change the odds around for a straight draw if that is the case), is to at most only call the raise if you cannot throw the odds off, unless you just want to race to the river and hope you hold. I will look at the size of the raise and then decide if I am willing to pay that much to see if they hit on the turn since I would have to fold. I will also look to see if they miss the turn if I have enough left to bet enough to give them bad odds to chase the draw on the river. If not I have to decide if I am willing to pay to call the raise to let two cards come if they miss the turn. I see no point in betting the turn if I cannot throw the odds off, so wait until the river to bet (just me personally, as betting is ok but the river card is going to wind up coming and I want to see it first most of the time). If not, I fold. I may have the best hand currently, but I am clearly putting chips in the pot when I am behind on the flop.

The reason people raise on strong draws like that with a simi bluff, is they are the current favorite to win the hand on the flop even though they currently do not have the best hand. If the opp folds they win the pot without having to complete the draw.

Remember, even if two players play the hand correctly and soundly, one has to lose. It will be you at times, and it will be the opp at times. Do not be upset when you lose, be happy you played the hand in a sound and smart way. Thats what is important in hands whether you win or lose, play as correctly as you know how. If you consistently lose playing as correctly as you know how, then it will become clear it is very incorrect and then find out how to resolve it, as if you play correctly you will win more over time, but you will still lose some hands anyway (thats poker).
Re: Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
avatar Subject :  Re: Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
Date:       February 25, 2009 03:35AM
Nerice Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The correct thing to do when someone raises and
> you know they are on a draw (I use a FD as the
> example, but just change the odds around for a
> straight draw if that is the case), is to at most
> only call the raise if you cannot throw the odds
> off, unless you just want to race to the river and
> hope you hold. I will look at the size of the
> raise and then decide if I am willing to pay that
> much to see if they hit on the turn since I would
> have to fold. I will also look to see if they miss
> the turn if I have enough left to bet enough to
> give them bad odds to chase the draw on the river.
> If not I have to decide if I am willing to pay to
> call the raise to let two cards come if they miss
> the turn. I see no point in betting the turn if I
> cannot throw the odds off, so wait until the river
> to bet (just me personally, as betting is ok but
> the river card is going to wind up coming and I
> want to see it first most of the time). If not, I
> fold. I may have the best hand currently, but I am
> clearly putting chips in the pot when I am behind
> on the flop.

This is a great post! Great way to think through the hand. I love it Nerice!.
Re: Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
avatar Subject :  Re: Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
Date:       February 12, 2009 05:24PM
Yep! Sure is! And I found it today (in my own game). Early tourny (25/50 blinds), In early position, I raise 3X BB with AA. Another player re-raises, the small blind calls and I just call also, planning to set a trap. The flop comes 3, 6, 7, rainbow. There is around 900 in tht pot. The small blind bets 400. I have just over 800 left. I know this guy will call with any 2 cards and I have the re-raiser behind me who also could have re-raised with any pair. So, three sets of trips, 4,5, and 6,7 also have me beat. In addition, 1 pr + gut shot has a lot of outs. I almost folded. But no, my mouse found its way to the slider bar, pushed it all the way right, then clicked "Raise to". The re-raiser folded (must have had Ace big or a small over pair?). Small blind called my push. Sure enough, he had called 2 pre-flop raises with 4,7 sooted. A 5 on the turn gave him the str8 and sealed my fate. Then, to add insult to injury, a 5 came on the river giving me 2 pair. Should have folded. Need to learn to fold in those situations. My read was (almost) dead on. He was not necessarily "the favorite" on the flop, but he sure had enough outs to make the bet and the call.
Re: Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
avatar Subject :  Re: Leak Number #1, Factors in considering bet size.
Date:       February 25, 2009 03:28AM
I don't think I would agree that you should fold here on the flop. Lets say you were to play the hand on the flop with the cards face up. There is $1300 in the pot and you have $800. AA vs 4-7 on a board of 3-6-7. You are a 2:1 favorite!
Let me ask you this: If instead of 4-7, he had a flush draw. Would you fold? It's actually the same amount of outs. There is virtully no situation by the time you see the flop that you are folding based on the preflop action and the subsequent size of the pot on the flop. So rest assured, you played it fine. It's just the risk we take when we trap. Risk vs Reward.

Like Nerice said above, sometimes everyone can play the hand right, but someone has to lose. Sometimes chicken, sometimes feathers.


PhilGnFla Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>. Should
> have folded. Need to learn to fold in those
> situations. My read was (almost) dead on. He was
> not necessarily "the favorite" on the flop, but he
> sure had enough outs to make the bet and the call.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/25/2009 03:29AM by DonkeyKong.

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