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CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??

CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
avatar Subject :  CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
Date:       January 19, 2009 11:11PM
This happened twice yesterday, by the LAUGHTER, of the poker gods!!!!

I know that this happens occasionally, but twice in one day!!! Both times I was taken to the rail.

Pocket 10's...blinds 100/200...limp in...raise to 400 by the button...flat call...4 to the flop...flop comes down A 10 5...rainbow...goes like this...check, then me I bet half the size of the pot, fold, all in, fold, then to me call...you guessed it button has the bullets. I guess I didnt give him too much credit for the raise, as it was a small raise and it was on the button. The guy had played fairly loose.

then 20 min later,

pocket 9's...Blinds 50/100...raised 3X...2 callers....flop K 9 3, 2 diamonds...I raise 3/4 pot to protect flush draw....guy pushes all in...I am thinking, no flush please...please pair the board...these thoughts go through my head...no worries, guy has pocket KK. Crap, if only I had wished for the 4th nine before I called the all in....I did pair the board and no flush fell. The guy that raised from early position, had the kings, and he had been playing tight.

I am not sure there is any way to get away from these hands?? Any thoughts??

Dont get me wrong, I know that hitting trips wins me way more chips than I loose, so I am not going to play them differently, just was wondering what other thoughts were.

portlandford
Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
avatar Subject :  Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
Date:       January 20, 2009 05:13AM
looks like it was just not your tournies to win-some days are like that. Set over set someone is going to lose a lot of money-your opponent next time I hope (unless its me!).
Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
avatar Subject :  Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
Date:       January 20, 2009 08:42PM
poker1040 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> looks like it was just not your tournies to
> win-some days are like that. Set over set someone
> is going to lose a lot of money-your opponent next
> time I hope (unless its me!).


Yeah, sometimes you will just run bad. In the last week I have have dropped 20 BI's over 55 games in one day, and a 40'ish BI downswing/break even streak in the middle of 200 games in one day (still was up overall that day). Volume like this I expect it at times, and it happens if your not playing a lot of volume as well, it just lasts a few days instead of having it happen in all one day.

Dont worry about it, it will come back around. Set over set is always a train wreck for someone.
Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
avatar Subject :  Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
Date:       January 21, 2009 09:07PM
hi, hindsight is 20/20 but here is my thought on it....


First your limp with ten ten is bad because it doesnt let you know where you are in the hand against other players and it doesnt protect them. If you raise and then there is a reraise on the button now you know he is strong. So you call and now see the flop. You hit your set, you bet half the pot, he reraises you all in ( you dont say how much more you have to call so folding could be an option). Now you know he is strong pre because he reraised you. Can he have AA, KK QQ? at least here you make the crying call with your set expecting to lose to higher set with AA , and happy if he turns over AK or KK -QQ.


Now the second hand, you say the guy was tight player and raised under the gun. 99 and smaller pairs are a fold pre to a tight players under the gun raise. Youre dominated at best with a race since he's tight and surely only playing AK and at worst losing to a higher pair. Once you call and play the hand, youre destined to go broke hitting your set and losing to his set. It easy to forget that 3 of a kind is in the middle of winning hands. it only beats 2 pair or a pair.

I have personally folded pocket Kings preflop on a live 1 2 no limit table with $75 of my money already in the pot. Pot was about $200 with 3 of us in the hand.

Starting pairs are only that, starting hands. I think the first hand i would lose as you say the guy was loose and i might have called his reraise preflop. The second hand i would have folded 99 pre to a tight player raising under the gun and still had my chips.

so my question is have you ever raised preflop and got reraised back and folded when not bluffing and having a pair? Might be a leak in your game.

Chrstphr



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/21/2009 09:08PM by chrstphr.
Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
avatar Subject :  Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
Date:       January 22, 2009 05:04AM
Hey Chrstphr, thanks for your insight.

I generally will play up to 1/8 of my chips on a pocket pair, J's and lower. I usually raise 3x if I open the betting...as long as it doesnt exceed my 3x rule. If I get reraised and it goes over my rule...then I fold...if not I call. I like to limp in and hit trips...the key, for me is to stay disciplined if I have an over pair to the board...someone may have hit trips themselves or have 2 pair, or have a higher over pair. Jon and I have talked a lot about winning small pots when you think you are ahead, and loosing small pots when things go wrong.

I know, not personally, but I would think, by watching on tv that small to medium pairs play a lot different in cash games.

I have had a lot of success with QQ and JJ and TT, just limping in and hitting a set....my thoughts are that the AQ AK AJ AA KK are not going to go away from a raise...if a A or K hit the flop...they win if I dont get lucky. Now I know that the thought behind raising to elliminate all the silly hands and just play against these hands...but I dont know how to tell the difference if they have pocket AA or KK, or that are just doing a continuation bet with their AK AQ AJ AT. So I have been taking the easier route for me and limping in and playing small ball, unless I hit trips. But once again, I have to have discipline.

Thanks again
Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
avatar Subject :  Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
Date:       January 22, 2009 03:44PM
I tend to limp with them as well (QQ+ I am raising 100% no matter how many are in the hand) if there are many limpers ahead of me. Going to get called by one anyway usually and if a over hit its a waste of chips by raising, and when I hit my set after limping a decent PP I am getting paid off.

I can make good arguments for doing it, and good arguments for not doing it both. Maybe one day I will think long and hard, as well as looking at the data to see if one way or the other is clearly so much better. Right now I could make good a argument either way I think, but data could prove my thinking totally wrong.

"But once again, I have to have discipline."

If your not willing to go broke with a set on a good textured board for a set on the turn (and no way to fold them on the flop without a very good read on the opp forcing you all in), just because there might be a overset, I wouldn't call that discipline... Sucks when it happens, but so many more chips are made being willing to do so, than is lost when it happens. Really hope I misunderstood what you meant by that quote.
Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
avatar Subject :  Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
Date:       January 23, 2009 07:24AM
Once you flop the set you aren't folding there. End of story.
Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
avatar Subject :  Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
Date:       January 23, 2009 09:15PM
I go broke 99-100 here. MAybe if I have a mountain of chips and a great read, I make that monster fold once. But easier to say than do.

I liked a few points Chrstpher made, but it is important to point out he is a very strong Omaha player, where folding sets and pairs pre-flop is more common. From an NL Holdem point of view, I can only remember set over set a few times, not enough to start folding based on what it pays.

Usually, its more the draw heavy board that hits, where a lay down is required.

What he also said is true in Chrs comments and stands out in DonkyKongs comments, once you flop a set, there is no getting away if it is only set over set that concerns you.

The only way you don't get into trouble is to get away from a mid pocket pair pre-flop into a shady situation. That said, there has been a clear pattern online that helped get the read, but didn't help me fold. LOL.

You call a raise preflop or get reraised and see a flop to try for a set. You flop it and check for the trap or value bet. You are value bet reraised and reraise and they shove. You don't see how you are beat until they open up.

An even better example you hold 99. Flop is 9 7 A. You check and an opponent who was very strong preflop checks quickly. Turn is a K, Q, or J lets say. You raise or check and are value raised, reraise, get reraised. ......See where I'm going with this? He all of a sudden seems like he is scared of nothing. Most times it will be top 2, but the actions really stink of a better set if the flop was very nervous.

To look at it from Nerices perspective, being afraid of monsters under the bed is also not the way to make money long term.

Long and short, unless the wrong call is gonna cost me in a very painfull way. Tons of potential or actuall REAL money, I go broke everytime.
Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
avatar Subject :  Re: CAN ANYONE GET AWAY FROM THIS SITUATION??
Date:       January 24, 2009 01:09AM
Let me put it this way......If the opponent checks the flop because of a big over and and then a smaller overcard but bigger than your set hits and he starts showing massive strength......Why?

He would bet top pair or bet an over pair on the flop most times. If he just called your raise or reraised preflop he may have a big PP but worried about the big ace.

You have to give your opponent credit for a large pocket pair preflop in order to even think about getting a read here and it will be very hard not to be blinded by your own set.

Even then I don't think you should fold, rather just try to keep the pot smaller in these situations where you have alot of things adding up to a potential disaster.

99-100 go broke with a set beat by a set, it will be the correct move and will more than pay for that left over one.

Just thought of a simpler thought process for the tip off

a) you think your opponnent might have a bigger PP preflop than you but you are looking to flop a set.

b) his post flop action seems scared rather that delayed and checked for the trap or a value reraise or he checks a flop then reraises your bet.

c) he suddenly likes a the turn that is smaller than the largest over on the flop.

d) he doesn't force you all in, he makes smaller reraises to get you to commit. The aggression says "I think I have the best hand so you should fold." The second says "I know have the best hand "Top Set, so you just keep put a little more than your raises in until I can get all your chips"

Thats where it might be good not to bet the farm. But you will always kick yourself in this situataions when you find you gave him to much credit.

Good players don't often reraise a strong hand by a strong confident opponent without the nuts. If he fits both, maybe there is a monster ounder the bed.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/24/2009 01:46AM by jontm.

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