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Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help

Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 13, 2009 04:00PM
Hello,

I was talking to a good friend of mine and she told me that this site would be a goos place to post what i had written to her in an email.

Any idea on how 2 get over a bad beat? Im havin the worst run at the moment and just cant take much more of it. Im 22 and i already have grey hairs. How many 22 year olds that u know have grey hair? Im almost ready to quit poker but its the only thing im good at. I dont know how to handle it ne more.
And on top of that I have spent so much time and money on ways to improve my game and since i have done that my game seems to have gotten worse.

I would just like to know of any ways to over come this bad run.

See you at the tables!
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 13, 2009 07:01PM
First of all Welcome to the forum MitchO! I'm glad you found your way over here. You'll find a lot of people with a lot of knowledge and experience that are willing to help each other out.

So, running bad for 8 months eh? That sure sounds like a long time. I think running bad is attributed to 2 basic things. Bad Luck or Bad Play. Usually it's a combination of both.

Bad Luck. Or what is also referred to as 'short term negative variance' , or the negative side of short term variance. Because it's not luck, it's just probability.
So how do we deal with perceived 'Bad Luck'?
1. Perspective. You have to keep things in a realistic perspective, and have a real understanding of odds in a relative sense. What I mean by this is that if your Aces get cracked by Kings, you need to realize you are only a 4:1 favorite. To put this in perspective, have you ever played craps? Well Kings cracking Aces in Hold'em have a better chance than me throwing a Seven on the roll of the dice, which seems to happen all the time. Bad Beats are rarely as 'Bad' as people think they are. Come to terms with this and you won't go on tilt. Instead of thinking of them as bad beats, just consider it being on the negative side of short term variance.
2. Play more. I personally like to multi-table online. One of the benefits is that if you take a bad beat, you don't have time to dwell on it because your attention is redirected to another table. Just close the window and move on to the next hand at another table. Also by multi-tabling, you get to see more hands. This will even out your variance. It will also make you witness to more 'bad beats' (not necessarily yours), which will reinforce the idea that they really aren't bad beats. These beats happen all the time. Everyday, all day, without prejudice, underdogs win their fair share.

Bad Play. Bad is not a good word here. Maybe just playing your 'C' game. There are a million reasons why we don't play our best. And everyone is different. There are strategic and tactical areas that you could evaluate. I would start by asking yourself
1. What is my motivation to play poker? Is it recreational? Professional? Social? Monetary? Escapism?
2. What is my approach to learning the game? Theory? Experience? Reading? Chatting? Playing?
3. What style of play am i most comfortable playing and playing against? TAG LAG TP LP? SpadeClub or Live?
4. What is my mental state when I play? Tired? Angry? Rested? Focussed?
These are just a few questions to start finding leeks.

From a tactical side, you would need to go over hand histories and try to figure out where you are making mistakes. A lot of people like to post outrageous once in a lifetime hands for analysis, like "I flopped a royal flush what would you do?", but these are really not going to help you. Running bad for 8 months could be just 8 months of bad luck, but there also might be some fundamental leeks to plug. I would walk through some run of the mill situations, post them in the hand analysis, and let people comment. A hand like having Top Pair good kicker. Or a nut flush draw. Things that you will run into often. You may know what the correct play is, but people can point out the why. People can tell you their thought process that might give you another perspective on something as seemingly simple as top pair.

Other tips for dealing with a losing streak.
Set Realistic Expectations. Beating large fields is no small feet. Some of the best go long stretches without winning. Look at Jon Juanda, who recently just won the WSOP Europe. When was the last time you remember him winning anything?

Don't be too results oriented. If you played well but still lost, you should not be upset. It's still gambling.

As you retool your game, expect to get worse before you get better. Sometimes it takes time and experience to get comfortable with changes. If you re-work your swing in golf, you're gonna suck at first, but you're gonna be much better down the road.

And don't worry. You can't be on the negative side of short term variance forever, and that is a statistical FACT.

Stick with it Mitch. Hopefully this forum will help

DonkeyKong



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/13/2009 07:04PM by DonkeyKong.
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 13, 2009 11:43PM
Im the first one to say that i run bad but in the long run im a winning player. you need to understand the level of competition the monthly fee site , freerolls and micro buy ins normally the players willl play alot of hands that the higher limits wont, so there much higher of a chance of them outdrawn you.
try playin omaha it will help your game to understand outs and how to fold good hands.
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 14, 2009 02:09AM
I have no advise other than to suggest you read the lowlimit, tactical, hand analysis and head game area topics that jump out at you.

Give us more info, maybe we can find a few leaks. Mine are public in low limit, don't be shy. We all go through the same ones.

What does running bad mean to you? Why do you feel like you aren't winning? What type of player do you consider yourself to be?

What type of hands do you play?

Enough ????'s for now, lets see if we can find you a tidbit you will proud to apply.
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 14, 2009 02:31AM
Welcome to the forum!

First off if your getting grey hair because of poker your taking the game to heart and too seriously. You have remember that there is always another hand and you will have times when you give someone else a bad beat. I had a a few bad runs myself and I know it can get frustating. We have ALL been there, perhaps you need a poker vacation. Clear your head. and come back fresh. All the posts so far have great advice from great players. '

You have let it go! Forget about it, move on to the next hand. Do not play mad it only makes your game worse. One thing I have learned to do is for example do not fall in love with AK suited. It looks great but pre flop all you have are 2 pretty cards. If the board pairs and it's not Ak and you get raised you might have to let it go. being we have never played I don';t know what your style is, I have to change styles depending on who I am playing.
If you ahve specific questions check out the tactical area. I hope all these posts have helped you in some way.
gl
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 14, 2009 02:24AM
Hey guys thanks for the reply. I just wish this "negative side of short term variance" would stop because its just gone on for way to long. Sometimes my bad run is because of my bad play everyone does it but the amount of "bad luck" that i have is just outrageous. Like i will flop 2 pair and some will call on the flop with small pockets with all the over cards out there and then call 80% of the chips once theres another over card and also 3 to a flush then there little pockets that they just couldn't let go of hit the flush. It just makes you sick and i play every night and i just cant avoid it. I had some spastic go all in on me on the 3rd hand of the night on a 747A rainbow board. I had raised pre-flop with JJ, bet big on the flop, bet wen the ace hit and then they go all in for 500 more. I thought about it for a bit and talk my way through it and i said "you don't have the 7 or the ace so i call" I turn over my JJ and he turns over 5 4 and of course he hits the 2 outter 4 on the river. There was not one bit of bad play in that hand by me and yet i still get smashed. I constantly make the right decision and I seem to get punished for it time and time again while the donk who is a huge underdog gets rewarded time and time again.

I fold some pritty big hands like AK, AQ, AJ QQ, JJ pre flop because i put some one on a hand and its the right choice 90% of the time and yet people cant do the same with the "monster hand" like 4 5. I know how to fold when im pritty sure im behind.

I know i cant be on the "negative side of short term variance forever" but dam it seems like forever and i just want it to stop. How do i over come these bad beats while in a tournament?
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 14, 2009 02:32AM
Well i think im a pritty good player. I know when to fold, i know when to play, i have people say to me "wow, you are so good at reading people" i play my position when needed. I know how to play the big hands as we all should but i also know how to play any other hand as long as the time is right. If im not getting good cards and nothing is happening i make it happen when need be. I don't just sit there and wait and wait for good cards until i get blinded out of the tournament. I make the moves and i very rarely follow them. I know you would gt people on here all the time complaining about how unlucky they are and stuff but my bad run is just really getting to me know. I use to win on average about 3-4 games a month, now i cant. I have won a game for 7 months.
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 14, 2009 04:12AM
Dude.... SLOW DOWN!!! Take a deep breath... it's just poker and it's gonna b all good! I think you should re-read Donkeykong's first response to you several times, that's some good wisdom and it's all true!

My piece to add for you is more from a psychological perspective. We see and experience what we believe to be true. I've gone through times when it seems like I am collecting bad beat after bad beat. Then I start listening to the guys preaching about the software being bad or the "blacklist" sites are supposed to have, or that new players are given winning hands so they will sign up.... all BS. Just a way to fuel the belief that something outside of myself is somehow conspiring against me, giving me a bad deal. Anything to blame other than looking at my own game or the way I am playing, which is the only thing I have any control over anyway! Who knows? Maybe it stems all the way back to some core belief that I'm not worthy or that I am bad and deserve to lose or have bad luck. Needless to say, when those thoughts are running through my head it seems like the bad beats just keep coming. By monitoring my game though and re-hashing hands, I've discovered that when I feel that way, I set myself up for bad beats in subtle ways. Small things like "value betting" a mediocre hand on the river when I normally would have checked it. My hand selection suffers terribly!! Also, my awareness of what is going on at the table is not as sharp and I get involved in situations that are not the most advantageous. I find myself doing things and focusing on things that make my belief my "reality".
With all that said, my point is that you're not cursed, the site's aren't out to get you, God is not pissing on your head, it is just, what was the term, "negative short-term variance" and that's it! You said you like to read and improve your game, well there you go! Focus on learning how to play in a manner that will limit your negative short-term variance to the bare minimum, but remember, bad beats will still occasionally happen, they always will, and when they do, let it go. Phil Gordon said, "Bad beats are an essential part of the game, if bad players couldn't occasionally get lucky and win, there wouldn't be any poker games worth playing!" Hope you break through this spell and I'll [email protected]!!
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 16, 2009 05:48AM
Hi MitchO, glad to see you here. Moitch is a fellow Aussie also whom as you can see was after advice. Mitch had explained to me that he had spent a lot of $$$ on poker books etc etc etc to help improve his game. I suggested he may be incorporating all too much at once. I made the fatal mistake of using mathematics only after studying up on my poker maths .....I had forgotten basics lol....

Sometimes we all get so focused on 1 area of our game or even multiple ones and forget about the bare basics!! Poker is something where we will continue learning and NEVER know everything.

I think the fun disappears when we try too hard to WIN WIN WIN and with the fun gone it becomes a chore to play. Try to remember back when it was fun mitch and take the advice of the guys and gals on here.
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 17, 2009 10:10AM
I think Angel May have hit the nail on the head. I know I have had periods in poker that I have consumed so much information at one time that I felt I saw an opportunity to out play the field at every turn. All I ended up doing was outplaying myself and running bad. Gear down!
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 17, 2009 03:48PM
BTW, Where do you play MitchO? is an online site compatible with pokertracker?
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 18, 2009 01:07AM
Nar i dont really play online much. I play alot of live poker.
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 19, 2009 11:29PM
Hey Mitch, this is definitely the right place to be... I've been amazed at the amount of knowledge here in this site. I'm only an amateur when I compare my self with many of these other people inputting on the forum... But one thing I teach my students is never forget the basics. that is going to be your bread and butter. You've made a great choice by investing in learning the game through books and such. Which books though? Not all of them are going to fit your style and learning ability. I personally have stayed away from SuperSystem, while others flock there. My personal favorite to start was Harrington on Hold'em, Volume 1, then 2. Not a huge fan of V3, because of the way it's written. And there are other great players that write books that all they do is talk about how good they are...You have your style, though. Use the books as refreshers and accents to your style. Not every one or even a single one should be treated as gold.

But always keep the basics in the back of your mind. I've been a winning player here at home for months, and last weekend got sucked out on Friday at the cardroom, friday night at my own card game, Saturday night at my card game, Sunday night at the card room, and finally settled back to not lose any more Monday morning. This past weekend, I am overall down, but I had to stop, take a break, and focus on my basics. Then I had to check my aggressiveness. I run a poker league here, and I see alot, and I mean alot, of aggressiveness coming from the younger generation. Aggression is good to a point, but you will see your swings alot crazier. settle it a bit, play a little more conservative (not scared though), and settle the swing. Tighten up then build in a move here and there to build back your confidence. I also see when players get beat up a bit, they get scared, lose their confidence, then make all sorts of bad moves out of desperation. Doc will probably be one of the first to say, but that's what the good players look for. If I see someone playing scared and out of control, I'm all over it. then a little chatter on top of it and you're toast. there is no doubt that the skills are there, go find them again. Square One, and patch the foundation. Good luck.
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 26, 2009 11:06PM
Just wanted to give my 2 cents for what its worth.

I have been playing poker for what i think as a long time, i learnt the skill the hard way using cash to learn. I have recently gone through what your talking about and understand where your coming from. My advice should you wish to take it is this:

Poker is a game of skill no doubt about it, but you will find yourself going up against players who over regard there 57 suited just because there suited, or call and all in with a9 and hit a lucky 9. At the end of the day this is gonna happen. Dont let this kinda thing bother you, take a break, do what ever makes u happy but i stress dont play anymore poker as your not in the right mindset by the sounds of it.

I used to be one of those players who thought poker was all about luck as i would get kicked out of a tournament on the bubble or just before more times than not with people with donk cards.

I recently built a bankroll on pokerstars but lost it all again. I went from zero to 18 bucks in a day doesnt sound like much but any profit is good profit. But i am not gonna let this bother me i'm gonna do it again and again until it works out.

Anyway my main point is only play when ur in the mood, or when your playing good. Dont i repeat dont get in the mindset like i have many times of i've lost 10 in a row i've gotta win one soon, this is a definate problem and will cause tilt and the likes. When your running bad beats dont play and play and play thinking it will pass its just the poker gods hitting you with the bad luck that all players get. And like i said take a break, play that guitar again like you used to, go kill some orcs, blow some zombies away, go draw something what ever makes you happy other than poker go do it, but i cant stress enough stay away from poker it will save you in the long run.

I have a new philosophy at the moment if you cant bear to hit bad beats dont play its bound to happen its just statistics. Anyway hope my post may have given you something to think about, or maybe help but trust me i've been there many times and know how it is.

Anyway enough blabbering, stay focused dude play your game, and most of all have fun and dont play because you have too and things will come good.

I wish you luck at the tables and prosperous flops and boards.


Lee
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 30, 2009 11:31PM
Hey Mitch0. Meant to ask. Live:what setting and what stakes? MTT STT or cash?
And what books are you reading?

I might have some recommendations for you. Send me a PM.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/30/2009 11:33PM by DonkeyKong.
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       April 09, 2009 12:17AM
Hows it going and welcome to DrCheckraise. I am a pretty new member and i have found it difficult to go from live play to online play. tourneyments in my area are not very often. i have seen 1 freeroll tourneyment for a 5k prize pool in the last year or so. The casino near me has daily and weekend tourneyments but too far to drive to get there very often i go about once a month to these. i looked back at my last 10 tourneyments in real games and they all were 50 players or less. i finished in the money 4 times and won once. the other 3 money positions were 2nd, 3rd and 5th. (these pots were split to the top 10% of entrants which is usually 1-5). Now online i have done horrible. have won 2 or 3 freerolls and the top finish in MTT is 15th. I have made a final table placing 6th or 7th i think one time on SC but it was that 40 dollar freeroll. The rest of the time i get my A$$ 'whipped early to midway through. I believe i have some leaks and im working on them constantly reading up on the latest strategies and tactics then playing them to try and find my game. So instead of worrying about them "bad beats", i just play my best, keep learning the tactics and strategies to be a better player online, and take that knowlege and experience to the casino or to a table game. Let me tell ya that i have yet to win an online MTT at SC. i have won a couple at full tilt them freerolls to satelites to other satelites to the main event. The 225 or 450 player ones. Some of you know what i am talking about here. Anyways just to let you know that you do even somewhat good online making it deep here, you will go a lot further at a real table game. I know from experience.
See yall at the tables!
MrM89
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       March 30, 2009 08:54PM
Hi its my first post here but would like to give my 2 cents worth, sounds like you might be like me .one question is how was your play before you started reading up and learning more on poker ? were you playing good poker before all the learning ? the reason i ask is that when i bought a new book or looked things up on the computer and started to learn my play went bad for 2 to 3 weeks and that was about the time I would stop studing then my play would pick up . My freinds had hay day with this and would ask if i got a new book or would learn something off the computer lol. my best freind would always say why do you bother buying and reading the books you know what they do to your play . and yes i do know what they do but I also know that with out improvement iI cant be a better player so I have done things a little different just so i dont mess with my play . I hope this might help but if not I gave it a shot . first look back and try remeber if you the poker stuff hard and heavey and did you keep it up while trying to play and put into your game what youare learning ? No matter the out come you still hit it hard and heavey and continued to do so ? now that your game is majorly affected and has gone on for quite a while now your questionning your play or ability at poker ? I think that if you would take time to so to speak let the air clear let things settle come back and play only one game at a time 2 games every other day and dont read up on anything for 2 weeks to get your mind back on track . then your game should come back and when it does you notice that things are better before you read up on poker .Now what iI do is I read the books slower ( say a chapter in 3 days )then play yes every day if you want , that is what I do to keep my game on top . yes it takes a while to read a book but it doesnt mess up your play . whats happening is your trying to learn too much too fast and then your trying to retain it and its just not happening . BUT it is there the mind is just boggled up and not in the right order it has to settle then your good to go . Another thing to try and can learn alot more is to shadow a person and ask them questions as why the played the way they did what the are thinking Ect...... this is a better way to learn but you have to find some one willing to be open to this. well I hope this might help . good luck
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       April 03, 2009 12:45AM
I didn't have time to read EVERYTHING, forgive me. Two things that stuck out to me were;

1. 8 months CAN'T be bad luck or variance, that's just too long. Which would make me search for some serious leaks if it were me.

2. And related to #1 possibley, you are laying down big hands pre-flop that end up losing 90% of the time. I am guessing that you pulled 90% out of the air. You should track the REAL number in situations like this, because you are programming your poker brain to believe things that should not be true. Once your brain believes that pocket Kings are beat pre-flop, and it's proven in your mind 90% of the time, your streak will continue.

I had a friend that waited for nut type hands, folding all kinds of good cards in position. He waited till he was at least an 80% favorite to win before he would see a flop. Then, if the flop looked ugly, he would fold to any bet. Needless to say, he was eaten alive constantly. Bad luck? Not hardly.

My style is to play position, players and cards - one hand at a time! Every situation is different. I pressure weak players, trap LAGs, switch gears all the time, take notes, sniff out traps, bluff when it's likely profitable or short handed and keep constant track of the probabilities and how I should proceed. I try to put my competition into a style set and then play to no style set myself, even at the expense of some chips. It's money well spent.

If other players peg your style, whatever it is, they will play to it and rob you. Bad luck is not the problem as it's almost statistically impossible.

Good Luck,
The Syphon
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       April 03, 2009 01:34AM
Yes Poker is SKILL and not about the poker gods or the rng thinga majig...
numbers numbers numbers,Doc you said how we feel at the time,effects our play I personally experienced this! what we feed our little poker calculators in our heads makes soooo much difference in how we perceive the game.
IT does NOT change the game, the cards are still cards the tbl is still a tbl..etc.
I notice if I sit in traffic for an hour on the way to a tourney,I get there the registration line is like a mile long,they dont have DIET Dew of course they ran out I find these things WAY beyond my control effect my game.
On SC tho it "feels" like I am unable to win or just psyched out by it whatever I dont get it!
All the Best,
Dennis

A man's TRUE feelings come out in a poker game!
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       April 03, 2009 12:02PM
Just so you guys know before going overboard on the 8mths is too long. In my opinion in the league MitchO has no choice but to play in it isn't. I am in the same boat as him most of the time unless i make a HUGE trip. Australian Poker League free for all poker with great prospects for huge winnings BUT .....

Bloody donks that call everything and anything are EVERYWHERE. I know a few premium players such as Queen_Bee, Tyrone Hunter, Steve (BoxHead) Ballard personally and they do it ultra ultra tough!!! I refuse to play APL in my area, it is always full of drunkards and they shit me. I should probably have more of a go and get out there but find it a pointless venture for myself. MitchO on the other hand has a lot more time then me to play a lot more games which counts when you are going for that 500k. The issue is getting past the live freeroll donks and as we all know when you have 100 players and 90 are donks that can be hard. There is no real strategy you can use against them when out numbered 9 to 1 LOL.

My first comment was about MitchO's over reading could possibly be doing it, focusing in on one area. I have since thought about this!!! I am thinking MitchO has probably picked up his game and is now far from a Donk finding it hard to compete against them when he is so out numbered. I have spoken to MitchO in person and suggested a road trip to the casino in Sydney to play in real money tourney. I think he will be shocked.
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       April 03, 2009 07:40PM
8 months means nothing unless you there is an idea of # of trials per month. If you are playing 1 tournament a month, then no big deal. If you are playing 20 tournaments a month, then yea, thats an issue.
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       April 04, 2009 12:57PM
very true actually DK, when looking at it from the prospective. In saying very true, I will have to go back and read exactly how many tourneys he is playing. I am assuming a lot. Let us know MitchO
Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
avatar Subject :  Re: Im running bad (for the past 8 months) please help
Date:       April 08, 2009 11:05PM
Hey guys,

I play atleast 6 games a week

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