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Bankroll, Field Size and Payout Percentages.

Bankroll, Field Size and Payout Percentages.
avatar Subject :  Bankroll, Field Size and Payout Percentages.
Date:       April 10, 2009 01:33AM
I don't know that this post belongs here and I will probably move it to Bankroll Management later. I have made many bankroll management mistakes, thankfully I have poker buddies to guide me.

Multi Table Tourneys are attractive for glory and pride and top 3 spots.

That said the smaller fields are becoming more atractive for a few reasons. DonkeyKongs post "Come down off that ledge my friend" really got me thinking harder. Lets use math

9 player SNG

3 spots pay =approx 33% of field cashs

3rd@ $1+.20 on PokerStars pays $1.80 or 1.5x buyin

2nd pays $2.70 or approx 2.25x buyin

1st pays $4.50, or almost 4x, lets say 3.75x (close enough)

Must best 6 players to cash and profit 50% of buy in.

45 player SNG

7 spots pay about one in every 6 and change players or just less than 20% of the field but...the percentages profit gain by about the same change.

I don't want to list all the payouts, just note that 1st is $14 dollars. We need to best 44 players to win. Also note that is still 12 more players (roughly) to beat then playing 4 single tables and winning, for roughly the same cash.

90 players

We save 10 cents on the rake (turbo) but 1st is $24.80, $3.20 less than winning 2x the 45 SNG

This time 12 spots pay...or almost 1 in 9 players will cash...very close to the 10% of field and we need to best 78 players to cash.

$1000 Guaranteed ($1+.10)

Example from completed: 342 spots payed of 2358 entries. Roughly 15% of field. 1st $382 or 300+ x entry

2357 players to beat. 342 (start of money) pays $1.88 or the same as 3rd in the sng.

6 players to beat there, 2016 here to hit same cash.

To cash $4.50 or same as SNG we need to finish 28th-36th or best over 2310 players

My 2 best finishs (proudest) in a $1 MTT at Stars where 7th out of 1328 (paid $36) and 19 out of 456 in HORSE (paid $17) I am mentioning this to make a mathametical and pyschological point. (At the end of the post)

In the first, I had to out last 1321 to cash that. in the second it was 435 players. I could cash the same amount by wining (2.5) 45 player SNGs for the first, 1.2 for the second or lets say a first and a fifth place.

The SNG requires 1200 some less players to beat and the second 400. For the same money

We can do the same live.

The last MTT tourney I won had 50 players. ($60 entry) It paid $860 + a $300 seat or $1160 for $1100 profit. I dumped the seat for $ $1000 for besting 49 players or just under 17x profit. 6th paid about $225

Now look at my CPT shot...Entry was $550 (I paid $500) and 1st was 50,000 or 100x Sounds great! BUT!

28th through 38th paid $725...about $225 or 1.5x entry. To get there I needed to outlast 340 players, to double up, 330.

To profit the same amount in the $60, 44 or 47 to win $500. I can play about 8 of the same $60 tourney for the $500 cost

Granted 8x49 is roughly the same amount as the 378 players at the CPT but 8 first only pay $8800 but......

As DK stated in another way "how many more hands do I need to win and them not win if it is one big game?" " How many beats do I need to fade?" The game I finished deepest on stars my QQ lost to JJ, we were both huge at final.

Thats Poker, always one beat away from big money or one hand away from being in it.

The Point of my ramble

1) The thrill of beating big fields and winning 1st lures us to take the big shots...thats ok if we have a minimum of 10x the buyins as a bankroll. Most pros would have far 100x. Mathameticaly we can see unless we win...the pay sucks compared to the risk, time and number of opponents to beat. DonkeyKong stated that too.

2) One win at a $10 SNG home game buys me into a $60. It will take me 2 months of normal fluctuations/deviations and availability to recover the loss of taking one big shot. Thats also poker. It can be a grind. The quicker we try to accumulate the deeper we can dig a deficit.

3)MTT wins fill a player with pride...but who ever knows and who remembers in a week...actually how many other players actually care how you win the money? The point of the game is to win money. Nobody is proud of winning sit and goes...but really if they are doing it consitantly...they are probably winning just as much as the inconsistency of MTT play.

4) That said a good cash player...what I strive to be, will win the same amount in a few hands as winning a small field MTT. And only having to outplay a few opponents, with the same risk/buyin. The difference is they are not worried about only risking a set amount...they are bankrolled properly and MTT is just to many variables for them to bother with.

I think I'm done for now...LOL.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/2009 02:39AM by jontm.
Re: Bankroll, Field Size and Payout Percentages.
avatar Subject :  Re: Bankroll, Field Size and Payout Percentages.
Date:       April 10, 2009 02:30AM
if your a 1 dol sng player in stars, try sittin at cash table .01/.02 sit with 2 or 3 dols wait for grt cards they lov to call. gl
Re: Bankroll, Field Size and Payout Percentages.
avatar Subject :  Re: Bankroll, Field Size and Payout Percentages.
Date:       April 10, 2009 06:52PM
Cash games can be harsh, I try to keep away from them like the plague. On FT i used the shove method in no limit and it just busted my bankroll lol

So cash games in my experience is an easy way to blow your bankroll and quickly, STT are good take a while and give not as much in return but well worth the run. I learnt this lesson after blowing quite a bit on MTT.

Use the startegy your using jon, for example set a target if you win 3 you can play a MTT or 2 or whatever you want.

The main killer with these tho is tilt, dont do what i did and tilt every other day lol.
Re: Bankroll, Field Size and Payout Percentages.
avatar Subject :  Re: Bankroll, Field Size and Payout Percentages.
Date:       April 11, 2009 08:55PM
As usual Jon, a great blog. Excellent description of the ROI. The only thing left out is the variation in time required based on number of people.


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