Username:


Password:

Remember Me On This Computer


Create An Account!

 
Poker Forums: :Events Calendar: :Poker Glossary: :Live Poker Chat: :
 


Click on the player below to listen to the latest show. If you would like to have this weekly radio broadcast posted on your website contact me at [email protected] for the code.

.

Your DrCheckRaise Staff

Your Administrators

DrCheckRaise

Axman

oklajohnny45

Monmiss

Your Moderators

Monmiss - Poker Clinic

Monmiss - FaceBook Member Page

Poker is all about Luck and the Cards you Get - Not Skill

Poker is all about Luck and the Cards you Get - Not Skill
avatar Subject :  Poker is all about Luck and the Cards you Get - Not Skill
Date:       June 30, 2014 01:00AM
I just read an article that states it like it is. All judges that are ruling on whether poker is a game of skill or luck, should be required to read this article first.


Author: Zachary
Comment:

"Hi Peter and thanks for your post. You are completely correct that poker is a form of gambling despite other people who have been brainwashed by all the media hype about it say.

Yes there is AN element of skill...such as working out what other players are likely holding given the way they played their hand. However as all decent players know [b]it is only an educated guess.[/b].and you can't make someone else decide to call, fold or raise..sure you can make them put $2000 into a pot of $100 with nothing but a gutshot straight draw but some people will call that..they are called terrible players and 'fish' and apparently good players are supposed to love having them at their table...But even with these players it takes the right situation before you can profit..

So you get AK against this guy and as good strategy dictates you raise a lot and he calls. And the flop comes A29. Great you think...it's time to make money off this fish, you raise or check-raise and he ships it all in..and what does he have? A2... Or 29 suited or 9 10 and he catches his 10...

If you play live for any reasonable amount of time consistently you will see something..some nights you keep catching cards and the other guy keeps catching cards that are just second best to yours. AND YOU GET PAID!! And it's easy and fun and the way it's supposed to be. But then the next time you don't get a single hand for 3 hours until you get AK and you raise and someone re-raises..so you go all in and they call with 10 10 and the board comes 772 J 9 and you bust.

So maybe you rebuy and get nothing for an hour and a half and then you get QQ and so you raise and three people call and the flop comes AK 2. Then what? Continuation bet and get raised? What can you do now?

Then a massive fish sits down and he's rich. You rebuy so you've got a full stack. And the three hours you're there you get j5 93 A4 48 k6 hands until you get JJ and he wants to play with you. You re-raise him and he calls and it flops 226 and you think I'm very likely good and you get it all in and what do you know he's got K6 but also a flush draw and bang he hits the flush.

That's the type of thing you see over and over and over and over again at the poker table. There is something called a situational score that better defines luck at a poker table. The idea is if you have AA that's lucky..but if the best had anyone else has is K4 and they are tight you won't get paid no matter how 'skilled' you are. Or if someone calls you're raise with 33 and it comes K32 you're going to lose money no matter how skilled you are.

If you are good at betting and putting people on hands that's great but if they have something strong like a set or a flush or a straight they probably aren't folding whether you're Tom Dwan, Phil Ivey or any other big dick 'hero'.

All the top players you hear about are sponsored. They don't have to invest their own money in tournaments. They have other sources of income. Usually the 'best' players are the most aggressive. Or most willing to take risks. Put another way most willing to GAMBLE!!

Tom Dwan supposedly lost 20 million or so last year...Gus Hansen lost something like 8 million on Fulltilt in the last year..these top players with the best skills lose millions! How many top level chess players get destroyed for months?

Poker is gambling, there is no doubt about that. You cannot control the cards that come, you can't make someone fold a flush draw, you can give him 'incorrect odds' to call but if he calls and hits..you lose everytime.

Look at Joe Cada's win...he was all-in twice at the final table with 33 and 22 against QQ both times and he hit his 2 outer...TWICE!! That was not skill..that was gambling...poker is gambling..yes you have more choice, more influence, more factors to consider..but it is still gambling with cards you cannot control."

Best article I have seen in a long time. Poker is a card game that depends primarily on the cards you get. If you don't get the cards, you will lose.

Who knows for sure how much Tom Dwan or Gus Hansen has lost. You will never read anywhere what any of the professionals's weekly, monthly, yearly, or lifetime ROIs - Return on Investments are based solely on playing poker. The Card Player magazine and online poker sites don't want to scare the fish away.

The gambling industry is based on puffery and hype. The only people that make money for sure are the brick-n-mortar casinos and online casinos - they make billions; and poker players that write books.

Online gambling will destroy thousands upon thousand of jobs and hurt the U.S. Economy and destroy brick-n-mortar casinos.

We need to support people like U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham bill and U.S. House of Representative Jason Chaffetz that want to ban online poker.
Re: Poker is all about Luck and the Cards you Get - Not Skill
avatar Subject :  Re: Poker is all about Luck and the Cards you Get - Not Skill
Date:       June 30, 2014 06:36AM
This is true no one wins all the time but you have to play the cards your delt and hope you hit, if you don't see the flop you can't win.
very good post
johnnie
Re: Poker is all about Luck and the Cards you Get - Not Skill
avatar Subject :  Re: Poker is all about Luck and the Cards you Get - Not Skill
Date:       June 30, 2014 09:34AM
I so disagree with this. Where do I start? A player can not depend on luck. A good player, not a "decent player", a good player can always depend on skill.

" ..sure you can make them put $2000 into a pot of $100".. Really? What game are we talking about? Must be a free roll. All of the scenarios in this article can be countered with other ways of handing the situation.

"All the top players you hear about are sponsored. They don't have to invest their own money in tournaments. They have other sources of income. Usually the 'best' players are the most aggressive. Or most willing to take risks. Put another way most willing to GAMBLE!!"..
Because there are players that choose to play that way is in no way proof that poker is a game of luck. It's 4th and goal, you are down by 3. 10 sec left in the game, do you "gamble" and go for the win or do you take the field goal and go into overtime? Not all players, play the game the same. Tom Dwan and Gus Hansen are not representative of the millions that play all over the world.


"Poker is gambling, there is no doubt about that. You cannot control the cards that come, you can't make someone fold a flush draw, you can give him 'incorrect odds' to call but if he calls and hits..you lose everytime."..
This is one of my favorite lines in the article. Good players know they can not control the cards. That is not the goal of the game. Poker isn't about the cards, it's about figuring out what the other players are doing and knowing what to do about it and when. I hate to use this phrase, but it's true. Gotta know when to hold 'em , know when to fold 'em..... skill.

"Poker is a card game that depends primarily on the cards you get. If you don't get the cards, you will lose." .
Poker primarily depends on skill. Some have more than others. Until a player gets that it is not about the cards, they will not get better at the game. Yes cards help, but there is soooooooooo much more that goes into it. Why do some players cash often? Because they have skill. No one can have that much luck.

Since poker is not gambling, there is no reason to keep it illegal.

And btw, nice to see ya around GW, I hope all is well with you!
Re: Poker is all about Luck and the Cards you Get - Not Skill
avatar Subject :  Re: Poker is all about Luck and the Cards you Get - Not Skill
Date:       July 04, 2014 12:44AM
Family is well. Hope yours and you too are well.

I am still an unemployed CPA that is now 65 - June 10, 1949. I finally have Medicare; I haven’t had medical insurance since early 2008; and I have preexisting conditions. My wife who is 43 and my stepson 17 do not have medical insurance. My wife's employer had it; but it was worthless and $10,000 a year; and they terminated it because only 1 person took. She works for an agency of the State of Illinois (i.e. it is funded by the state), but not entitled to State of Illinois Medical, life, etc.

I brought her and her kids to America from Canada – Winnipeg MB Canada - and promised to take care of them. They had Universal Health care, which works great despite what you hear from Republicans, Tea Partiers, and Libertarians; and you don’t have to pay to see doctors; you don’t have copays; you don’t have to pay a monthly premium; and, you don’t have to pay deductibles. I lived in Canada for 6 months on a consulting assignment, where I met my wife. I saw how well Universal Health care works and how the cost of living was not much different than in the USA. Sure, you might pay 20 cents more for a burger at McDonalds. Hard liquor, beer, and wine are taxed at a higher rate. But, if you are a responsible drinker, you did not notice it.

They also have a much higher minimum wage in Canada, which varies by Provinces and territories; it ranges from $9.95 to $11.50 and cover tipped employees. If you are a waitress in Winnipeg, MB, Canada, you are paid $10 per hour plus tips. A waitress in Wisconsin gets $2.31 per hour plus tips. In Winnipeg if you work at any retail store or any retail fast food restaurant, you are paid $10 per hour in Winnipeg. Canada has a living minimum wage; America does not. Only the wealthy are making money in America, the rest of us are being screwed up the butt with no KY.


As far as poker being skill, nah it ain’t – you either get the cards or you do not.

If you haven’t read it yet, you should read “The Poker Mindset” by Matthew Hilger and Ian Taylor. I used to exchange emails with Hilger and post blogs at his forum
[www.internettexasholdem.com]

I wrote a blog at his site that stated that 99% of all poker players will have a lifetime negative ROI – Return on Investment. This drove all the wannabe professionals nuts and they posted that I was nuts. Hilger posted that “very few” will show a lifetime positive ROI from playing poker. He also posted that all recreational players will show a negative ROI. He also states in his book that everyone will eventually be dealt the same number of good hands as bad hands; so over your lifetime it evens out.

One problem for most players is that they have no idea what their lifetime ROI is from playing all forms of poker. Very few players have the discipline to record the results of each and every poker session, e.g., home games, charity games, subscription sites on internet, brick-n-mortar casinos and poker rooms, and on online cash poker sites. Most people remember the wins and block out the losses. If you use software like PokerTracker and you play at only sites that PokerTracker tracks, you might know you exact ROI at those sites.


Anyway, Hilger does say that after playing about 10,000 hands at each money level you play at, e.g., $1/$2, $3/$6, $5/$10 (30,000 hands), skill might become more important than luck or the cards you are dealt. But, as soon as you move up to a new level, it takes at least 10,000 hands to see if it your skill or just luck. He is talking about sit-n-go cash games.

Tournaments are almost entirely about luck and getting the cards. That is why you will never again see the same person win first place in the WSOP Main event again back to back – most likely you will never see the same person win the WSOP main event again starting with 2005 when Joe Hachem won. This is because there are too many entrants. Back when people were winning back-to-back WSOP main events, the number of entrants was small, e.g., 1970 – 7; 1971- 6; 1972 – 8; 1973 – 13; 1974 – 16; 1975 – 21; 1976 – 22; 1977 – 34; 1978 – 42; 1979 – 54; 1980 – 73; 1981 – 75; 1982 – 104; 1983 – 108; 1984 – 132; 1985 – 140; 1986 – 141; 1987 – 152; 1988 – 167; 1989 – 178; 1990 – 194; 1991 – 215; 1992 – 201; 1993 – 220; 1994 – 268; 1995 – 273; 1996 – 295; 1997 – 312; 1998 – 350; 1999 – 393; 2000 – 512; 2001 – 613; 2002 – 631; 2003 – 839; 2004 – 2,576; 2005 – 5,619; 2006 – 8,773; 2007 – 6,358; 2008 – 6,844; 2009 – 6,494; 2010 – 7,319; 2011 – 6,865; 2012 – 6,598; 2013 – 6,352.

Doyle Brunson won back-to-back WSOP main events in 1976 (22 entrants) and 1977 (34 entrants). Johnny Moss won in 1971 with 6 entrants and 1974 with 16 entrants. Stu Ungar won in 1980 (73 entrants), 1981 (75 entrants), and 1997 (312 entrants). But, prior to 2006, very few people had any idea how to play Texas No Limit Hold’em – there were plenty of fish. Very few fish exist today. And, you can be knocked out by Donkeys hitting miracles, and lose lots.

I read CardPlayer and Bluff magazines monthly and get a kick out of the “Tournament Hand Matchup” examples. They give the thought processes of professionals and why they play the hand the way they did, all the factors, e.g., range the opponents play, the betting pattern, pot equity, fold equity, etc. It is funny, when you read the words like “My guess was wrong or my guess was right.”

So, if you want to tell me that poker is mainly about guessing right and that we are in agreement that poker is not a game of skill, but guessing!

I did guess right enough times at a NLOP tournament on Sunday and won $50 for fifth place out of 376.

Online Users

Guests: 41
Record Number of Users: 5 on December 05, 2016
Record Number of Guests: 254 on July 05, 2016
Poker Forums | Poker Glossary | Top Users | Terms of Service
Copyright © 2017 DrCheckRaise.com

Created by Design Magic and powered by Phorum.