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Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not

Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 08, 2013 04:44AM
Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not

What is the definition of gambling? Does it include poker? If anything, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit’s reversal today of the lower court’s ruling in U.S. v. Lawrence DiCristina may make it more difficult to conclusively answer either question...

While the Second Circuit did not interfere with the lower court’s determination that poker is a game of skill, it did conclude that the Illegal Gambling Business Act (“IGBA”) does not set forth an independent federal definition of gambling, but instead only incorporates state law. Chicago-based Gambling Law attorney Mark Lavery says that the Second Circuit’s decision proves that once-and-for-all skill does not matter in the equation — poker is gambling.

Read more: [www.forbes.com]
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 10, 2013 07:22PM
Imagine that.

It was just a matter of time.

I don't want to debate this subject again. But when you do not start with the same cards or pieces like in Chess, the majority of the game is based on randomness. Basically, you need to get good cards or 90% to 99% of the time you fold.

And, yes, some players are better at the game and know how to hold them and how to fold them, and in the very long run, that wins out over luck. Or does it?
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 11, 2013 12:27AM
Let us know when you make up your mind─or not. grinning smiley
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 11, 2013 02:47AM
[url=http://

][/url]

Mongo sums it up best.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 11, 2013 03:07AM
Pawn???
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 11, 2013 03:20AM
A basic requirement in a standard game of poker is that the DEAL of the cards must be random so that the game is fair for all players.

There is no such requirement that the players must PLAY their cards randomly.

To be fixated on just one element of the game like the random deal of the cards, which some may say is a minor element, is unfortunate, and some may say naive.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 08/11/2013 07:04AM by Axman.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 11, 2013 05:51AM
Hi guys it's been a while but great to see the two of you debating or not lol. I am no good at debating or putting pen to paper, in this day and time putting finger to keyboard. Dam I am glad to see a little action here again and I hope you two never see eye to eye lol
wishing the best to both of you
br
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 11, 2013 07:06AM
Calm down and step away from the booze.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 12, 2013 01:02AM
Would you please post my post about the success of Ultimate Bet that I posted yesterday about the articles in Card Players claiming that it has been a huge success, when in fact, it has not been, in the "Your Blogs" section. You or someone seems to be censoring many of my posts and removing them.

You never used to do this. It is unclear to me why you are doing it now. I mean if you don't like my posts, tell me and then move it to where it is allowed. Or, if I have not gotten the facts straight, please show me where my facts are wrong and post the actually facts.

And, we debated luck versus skill to death before. I am bored with that subject. We will have to agree to disagree.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 12, 2013 02:53AM
You do know that all one has to do is click on your post and they go right to it, right?

None of your postings in the News Forum has been censored--just merely moved to a more appropriate Forum.

The post in question was moved to the Subjects of Controversy (SOC) Forum. If you like, it can be moved to the Your Blogs Forum. (However, the link to it in the News Forum may be lost, but would nonetheless be in the SOC Forum.)

If your personal opinions are in the news, they may (emphasis on the may) get reported in the News Forum. Otherwise, with very few exceptions, self-reported opinions should be reported in another more appropriate forum. We will try to be flexible to accommodate any exceptions. Of course, everyone is generally encouraged to comment on posted news items.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 12, 2013 02:02PM
Axman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You do know that all one has to do is click on
> your post and they go right to it, right?
>
> None of your postings in the News Forum has been
> censored--just merely moved to a more appropriate
> Forum.
>
> The post in question was moved to the Subjects of
> Controversy (SOC) Forum. If you like, it can be
> moved to the Your Blogs Forum. (However, the link
> to it in the News Forum may be lost, but would
> nonetheless be in the SOC Forum.)
>


> If your personal opinions are in the news, they
> may (emphasis on the may) get reported in the News
> Forum. Otherwise, with very few exceptions,
> self-reported opinions should be reported in
> another more appropriate forum. We will try to be
> flexible to accommodate any exceptions. Of course,
> everyone is generally encouraged to comment on
> posted news items.

Thanks,
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 12, 2013 02:58PM
Axman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Calm down and step away from the booze.

What a cheap shot; but, not unexpected from you, even if you were just joking.


I stopped drinking over 7 years ago because I woke up one day and realized how pointless it was to cloud your mind to have fun or relax or whatever nonsense reasons people have to drink more than a couple times per week, drinking more than a couple drinks per night. I haven't smoke pot since the late 1970s and have never done any other illegal recreational drugs. There is a huge benefit in being clean and sober.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 12, 2013 03:40PM
That particular post was not directed at you personally, but at the third-party poster. It was an attempt at a joke, but sorry you took offense.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 12, 2013 06:12AM
Axman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A basic requirement in a standard game of poker is
> that the DEAL of the cards must be random so that
> the game is fair for all players.
>
> There is no such requirement that the players must
> PLAY their cards randomly.
>
> To be fixated on just one element of the game like
> the random deal of the cards, which some may say
> is a minor element, is unfortunate, and some may
> say naive.

Yep, you are right, the deal is random. I never said the deal was not random. I said that the staring pieces, in this case cards, are not equal, which is why most players fold pre-flop and do not pay to see the flop.

To test the skill of two players in a game, both players must start with the same pieces, like in chess or it is not a fair game. In most games, you do start with the same pieces, e.g., checkers, Monopoly, Risk, Chess. Checkers and Chess do not have the variable of the dice, which also creates a big luck factor. You do not start with the same pieces in poker, which is why most players fold preflop; they know that their poker cards will lose most of the time, and they will lose most of their money if they continue to play marginal pocket cards.

I also never said that the players must PLAY their cards randomly; I actually have no idea what you are talking about with that statement.

If in a card game, e.g., No Limit Hold’em, most players fold their starting hands and don’t pay to see the flop, I don’t see how that is a minor element of the game. Sure knowing when you should fold is a skill, but that is not the point. The point is that you don’t start will equal pieces, like Chess. Because you don’t start with equal pieces or cards, it can’t be a game of skill at that point; it is purely random, which can be stated “the luck of the deal.” If you randomly got pocket Aces, you were luckier than the guy who got 6-2 off suit, even though the probability of getting 6-2 is greater than getting a pair of Aces.

The importance of your two pocket cards is overstated as a fundamental principle in poker books and on the internet. They have even published RV – Relative Value, and EV – Expected Value Tables about your two pocket cards that give you an idea of the strength of your pocket pair. So obviously, your starting pocket pair is very important.

It would appear that your starting cards are very important. Whether you fold your starting hands depends on many variables, e.g., number of players, skill level of players, whether your opponents are aggressive or passive, who is sitting on your left (professional or fish), your position, etc. That being said, most hands are folded preflop, except in Head-Ups competition, or short-handed games; but, even then, most very marginal pocket pairs are folded preflop, e.g., 6-2 offsuit.

There are 169 possible two card combinations preflop. Only 42 of those combinations have a relative value of 10% or higher, with a pair of Aces having a RV of 86.1% heads-up against a random hand. 6-2 unsuited has the lowest RV of 0.02% heads-up against a random hand. If you are playing a full table with 9 players, pocket Aces only have an RV of about 35% against 8 players with random hands. The relative value is your chance of winning with those two cards, and is very dependent of number of players and your position. Most players playing 9-handed will fold 6-2 unsuited, except maybe on the button with everyone folding in front, against weak blinds; but, that is rare.

The EV – Expected Value of your pocket hand is the amount on money you can expect to win in the long run if you play those two cards. A plus EV is good and a negative EV is bad. The average number of bets won/lost in actual cash games has been computed based on your starting two cards.

“The statistics are based on 115,591,080 pair of pocket cards dealt at the real money tables. The unit for EV is average profit in big bets. For example, a pair of Aces has an EV of 2.32, which mean you can expect to win 2.32 BB – big bets on average every time you play pocket Aces, versus a pair of twos, where you can expect to lose -.09 BB average every time you play a pocket pair of twos or lose -0.15 BB on average every time you play 32s

Many poker books tell you this, “Always remember this fundamental principle to poker: "A bet saved is a bet earned!"” Basically, this principle tells you that you are better off folding the marginal pocket cards most of the time instead of paying to see the flop.

Knowing how your 2 hole cards rank is extremely important when deciding whether to enter the betting or not. These cards differentiate your hand from your opponents´ hands and unless you plan on bluffing a lot, then you have to stick with the most playable hands, which means you fold most starting hands. And, in case you don’t know this, you should rarely do naked or pure bluffs (cards that will only win if your opponent folds) and should only semi-bluff with cards that have outs or equity, just in case you get called.

My being fixated on luck is wrong and makes me naïve; but your fixation on skill does not make you naïve; by whose standards did you determine that?

You have been sucked into that nonsense that poker is a game of skill and the only reason that you don't win millions is because you don't have the right skill-set yet. Keep playing thousands of hands and just maybe you will have the right skill set at your current game and level, e.g., $5-$10 NL Hold’em. If you are not winning, it is obviously your fault because you are not studying enough or don’t seem to have learned all the right things. Keep playing, and maybe eventually you will figure it out at your current level. Remember, it is your own fault that you don’t win.

That is the biggest con going, and it sells millions of poker books and causes many to go to poker university, or pay monthly fees to TPE – Tournament Poker Edge where you can watch videos of super stars playing actual internet tournaments and explaining to you how they win. Of course, what you see if you really pay attention is that they lose a lot, but play thousands of tournaments and win a few. They play the same hands the same way that you play those hands, but, they have a won a few big tournaments grinding 24-7 for years, and now can afford to bankroll themselves in the bigger buy in tournaments with entry fees greater than $100, and they can play hundreds of those per week.

The excuses for why you are not winning are endless: you haven't learned SPR – Stack-to-Pot-Ratio, or REM – Range of Hands, Equity (your equity against that range), and Maximize (i.e., get it all in if you are committed with what you think is the best hand, Commitment Threshold, or how to bluff, or how to read your opponents, or fold equity, or pot equity, or your opponent’s range of hands, you opponents physical tells, and on and on and on and on ad nauseum; there is always something you haven't learned or done right; if you just do that one more thing, you too will be a superstar.

Each month in Card Players they have featured hands and some superstar explains his thoughts on why he did what he did, and that super star wins the hand. They don't show the hundreds of hands where his assumptions were wrong and he lost the hand. Most internet Superstars play ten to twenty tables at one time and 20 to 30,000 hands per year and many use poker software that gives them an unfair advantage (e.g., Poker Tracker). If they want to keep stats on their opponents, they should be required to use a note pad like at a physical poker table; and, they should only be allowed to play one table at a time, just like in a casino. The purpose of internet gambling was initially to allow you to play from the comfort of your home, not to play multiple tables at one time and use poker tracking software to track your opponent’s habits and range of hands.

The poker rags rarely talk about how most of the past superstars are doing or how much they have lost or how many have gone bankrupt. It is all hype to bring more fish into the game, which from all indications is slowing dying. Most of the superstars that still have money, are still living off big past winnings, or have made a lot writing books or doing other things. You don't hear much about Chris Moneymaker lately. Some say he is almost broke.


"I watched Chris Moneymaker play in the NAPT Shootout Tournament and he
just looked like a broken, unhappy man. No confidence, no poise, no
competitive spirit and no belief that he had a chance to win. I felt
Moneymaker was convinced he was going to lose - which he did. It was like
he felt obligated to play since he got an invitation and Poker Stars paid
his entry fee but he already knew he didn't have a chance of winning.

Moneymaker will always have a place in poker history, not just for winning
the 2003 WSOP main event but for being the guy largely responsible for
starting the whole poker boom. An accountant from Tennessee with a wife
and new daughter who was a total poker amateur. Yet he beat the odds and
won the main event and $2 million dollars. Or more accurately, half of it."
“I personally wish him well and hope he either finds a way to become a
winning player or gets out of poker completely and finds success and
happiness in another field. Because, right now he just looks like a
broken unhappy man.”

Irish Mike
[groups.google.com]

Kenny Rogers gave the best poker advice you will ever read in a poker book with his song “The Gambler.

“You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.

Now Ev'ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
'Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep."





video: [www.youtube.com]
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 12, 2013 09:56AM
You are good at making strawman arguments. But trying to make the argument that not starting with the same two cards somehow makes poker less skillful than other games, is not a valid argument for saying that poker involves less skill than those games. That would also be a very boring game of poker if the game started that way.

Absolute skill cannot be measured. The skills involved in a game of chess are just as important in a game of poker. Indeed, because of an element of randomness, it could be argued that there are probably more critical skills involved in a game of poker than a game of chess.

You also make a lot of assumptions on how people play poker in your opinion. I don't think all people play in the mechanical and boring manner you describe. I have seen a lot of diversity.

All your other commentary seems to support an argument that "Poker is indeed a game of skill", and appears to contradict your strawman argument. The cards don't play themselves, a human does.

“If you really want to do something, you will find a way. If you don’t, you will find an excuse."

That is my last word.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/12/2013 09:59AM by Axman.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 12, 2013 04:38PM
Axman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You are good at making strawman arguments. But
> trying to make the argument that not starting with
> the same two cards somehow makes poker less
> skillful than other games, is not a valid argument
> for saying that poker involves less skill than
> those games. That would also be a very boring game
> of poker if the game started that way.
>
> Absolute skill cannot be measured. The skills
> involved in a game of chess are just as important
> in a game of poker. Indeed, because of an element
> of randomness, it could be argued that there are
> probably more critical skills involved in a game
> of poker than a game of chess.
>
> You also make a lot of assumptions on how people
> play poker in your opinion. I don't think all
> people play in the mechanical and boring manner
> you describe. I have seen a lot of diversity.
>
> All your other commentary seems to support an
> argument that "Poker is indeed a game of skill",
> and appears to contradict your strawman argument.
> The cards don't play themselves, a human does.
>
> “If you really want to do something, you will
> find a way. If you don’t, you will find an
> excuse."
>
> That is my last word.

I love to hear people use “the Red Herring” called the “the Straw man or straw person or Aunt Sally (i.e., term used in the UK) when someone refutes their weak and meritless arguments. They can’t defeat their opponent’s arguments with factual counter arguments, so they claim foul and accuse the opponent of using straw man arguments.

“To "attack a straw man" is to create the illusion of having refuted a proposition by replacing it with a superficially similar yet un-equivalent proposition -the "straw man" -, and to refute it, without ever having actually refuted the original position.”
[en.wikipedia.org]

Here are some examples of straw man arguments:

Party A is an atheist and states that all religions are based on superstitious dogma.

Part B counters “Atheists should shut up because atheism is a religion.

Party B is using false information because atheism is not a religion; and, Party B is not addressing Part A’s contention, which is that all religions are based on superstitious dogma.

Since I started the debate, my initial argument can’t be a straw man. I started the debate and my argument was:

But when you do not start with the same cards or pieces like in Chess, the majority of the game is based on randomness. Basically, you need to get good cards or 90% to 99% of the time you fold.

And, yes, some players are better at the game and know how to hold them and how to fold them, and in the very long run, that wins out over luck. Or does it?

You countered with:

A basic requirement in a standard game of poker is that the DEAL of the cards must be random so that the game is fair for all players.

There is no such requirement that the players must PLAY their cards randomly.

To be fixated on just one element of the game like the random deal of the cards, which some may say is a minor element, is unfortunate, and some may say naive.

So, I guess your argument was that because the cards are dealt randomly the game is fair. And, your starting cards are a minor element in the game.

Your argument “A basic requirement in a standard game of poker is that the DEAL of the cards must be random so that the game is fair for all players” was the actual straw man.

This was not a debate about the fairness of how the cards are dealt; it was a debate that the starting cards are not equal, like the starting pieces in a real game of skill like chess where each player starts off with pieces of the same value. The game is then decided by the player that can move those pieces with the greatest skill and check mate the opponent. But, again, at the start of the game, the pieces are equal. The chess pieces are not dealt out randomly and one player does not start with stronger pieces, which is the case in poker, which again is why most players fold pre-flop because they got lousy cards.

So, I guess the argument that I was refuting was your fallacious contention that the starting cards are a minor element of the game.

I cited the fact that professional poker players use the concepts of RV and EV when evaluating the cards to play, as well as a myriad of other factors, and will usually fold most cards preflop, which is a statement of fact, which you can read in hundreds of poker books, poker magazine articles and on the internet.

And, all professional pokers players that I have read about use all the concepts I talked about. So, I guess you are saying they play in the “mechanical and boring manner” I described.

Then you take another cheap shot directed at me and make this nonsense statement:

“If you really want to do something, you will find a way. If you don’t, you will find an excuse."

There were no excuses in what I said; everything I said was a statement of fact. Your calling them excuses is another “straw man argument” to distract from your lack of factual counter arguments. You are basically saying that I am making excuses instead of factual statements; therefore my arguments have no merit.

And, I never said that poker did not involve certain skills, which I mentioned. But, what I did say was that the starting two pocket cards are folded most of the time by professionals because they know they will not win enough to make up for the time they lose.

Anyway, you need to reread the definition of straw man arguments; I made no straw man arguments.

And, we will have to agree to disagree as to whether poker is primarily a game of skill versus luck.

It appears that the courts will rule going forward that poker is still gambling regardless of skill or luck. The significance of this is that states that have vague laws about poker and used vague terms, e.g., “games of chance” will now include poker. Many states, like my state Illinois, have specific laws that make poker, internet or not, illegal gambling unless authorized by state law, which in Illinois is very limited. And, more and more states are amending their gambling laws to include poker so that there is no doubt that poker is a form of gambling regardless of the contention by some people that it is a game of skill and therefore should not be considered gambling.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 12, 2013 06:21PM
OK, since the straw man is a subcategory of red herring fallacies, let's go with "you are good at creating red herring fallacies." That is, a red herring fallacy is an error in logic where a proposition is, or is intended to be, misleading in order to make irrelevant or false inferences.

In my opinion, your statement:

"But when you do not start with the same cards or pieces like in Chess, the majority of the game is based on randomness. Basically, you need to get good cards or 90% to 99% of the time you fold."

is such as example.

Good day.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 13, 2013 02:34AM
Sorry David I only posted so you and George would know the forum is being read and I enjoy reading the both of your post.
I never would say anything against you or George and I only take drugs no booze
br
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 13, 2013 07:55AM
Not a problem, BR. Thanks for posting. It was good to hear from you again!

Sorry if my attempt at a joke also offended you.

Are you still playing at Carbon? I need to start playing there again, or get my money out if they will still let me, lol. There is something about their game structure that I have never gotten really comfortable with.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 13, 2013 09:23PM
Hi David
Yes I still play at Carbon and have done quite well there this year, so far I have cashed almost 4k in free-roll winnings and only deposit $20.00 so I can play the depositor free-roll witch is not playing this month , in total 6.5k in cash outs this year.
and yes they will pay ant is's faster if you ask for it to be put on a prepaid card.
br
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 13, 2013 10:16PM
Wow, this is almost fun again. Hope you are enjoying it BR.

Red Herring

The Red Herring is also called a "fallacy of relevance." This occurs when the speaker is trying to distract the audience by arguing some new topic, or just generally going off topic with an argument.

Straw man argument
Based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position
[fallacies.findthedata.org]

The Red Herring argument may be a subcategory of the straw man argument; but, my comment was that by accusing me of using straw man tactics, that accusation was in fact a straw man argument, and therefore a Red herring because you were trying to distract the audience from the real argument I made, which was that the starting two cards are not a minor element of the game, which was your contention.

The pocket pair (i.e. the starting two cards) is the most important element of the game most of the time, since those two cards decide whether most players, including professions, will pay to see the flop. Most players, including professionals will not pay to see the flop unless they have a decent pocket pair. There are infrequent exceptions to this rule, which I have mentioned in the other posts.

Therefore, it should be obvious that your pocket pair is the most important element of the game preflop because it decides whether you play the game or not. If you fold preflop because of your pocket pair, you are not in the game. In relation to that game, your pocket pair is most relevant; it is irrelevant that maybe in the next 100 games you might play a few hands because you received better starting cards. Each game stands on its own.

I do realize that this long run concept or premise is very important in poker and many poker authors talk about it, usually in reference to where skill will win out over luck. However, it is a false premise, because each game stands on its own.

Yes, if you are lucky enough to find enough soft or easy games where most of the players are weak players, you might just win more in the long run. This is another important premise in poker: “Only play in games where you are better than the other players, which usually means more fish in the game. Many poker books and internet poker articles tell you that it is critical to success to pick the right games. They will tell you to get up and leave games where the players mix is not right. I am not sure how this is possible at most land casinos where you are on a waiting list; but, it sound good in theory. Even on the internet this can be difficult if all the tables are full at peak time, or very few tables are open at non-peak times; but, it does sound good in theory.

I don’t like to use tournaments as an example, because tournaments require lots of luck, which is why the WSOP main event will never be won twice by the same player again. This assumes that the number of entrants stays above a few thousand. In 2003 there were 839 entrants, in 2006, 8,773. The last time someone won who had won before was in 1997, when Stu Ungar won this third time.

Luck is also why Texas Hold’em Superstars (e.g., Phil Hellmuth, Joe Hachem) were eliminated on day one and other Super Stars on day two (e.g., Doyle Brunson, Joe Cada, Jamie Gold, Tom McEvoy, Gus Hansen, Jennifer Harman, Ted Forrest, Jennifer Tilly) in the 2012 WSOP Main Event. These folks just guessed wrong. Guessing right is very important in poker, which many times is just a flip of the coin.
[www.onlinepoker.net]
[www.onlinepoker.net]
[en.wikipedia.org]

Bad luck is also why Gus Hansen has lost over 8.6 million lifetime.

“Gus Hansen Wins over $800K on Full Tilt Poker, Still Down $8.6M Lifetime”
[www.pocketfives.com]

But, in poker’s long run, skill is supposed to win out over luck, so they say. Or, is that just more hype to keep the fish in the game?

In “The Poker Mindset” by Ian Taylor and Matthew Hilger, they stress this point about the long run, but that long run may be your entire life. But, they also stress that most players are recreational players and winning money is not why they play; it is for the fun.

Maybe Gus Hansen is now a recreational player playing for fun or is he another poker junkie - addict? Or, he is just another poker junkie addicted to poker?

Getting back to preflop cards, another way of looking at this is to say you have forfeited preflop based on the two pieces (again, comparing the poker cards to chess pieces) you have received randomly. The difference between chess, a true game of skill, and poker is that in chess each player starts with the same equal 16 equal pieces.

If two players started with pocket Aces preflop, most likely neither would fold, if those same two players started with 6-2 offsuit preflop, they would most likely fold.

You only have to watch poker TV shows, like GSN’s High Stakes Poker to see the professionals fold most of time preflop because they know their starting cards are junk.

While it is purely random whether you get pocket Aces versus 6-2 offsuit, the probability of getting pocket aces is much lower because there are only 6 combinations of pocket aces in a poker deck or any pocket pair (e.g., pair deuces, treys, fours, etc.) and 16 combinations of 6-2 offsuit. There are actually 1,326 combinations of starting hands. This includes duplicates, e.g., 3-2 versus 2-3. If you eliminated all duplicates, you have 169 non-equivalent starting pocket cards, 13 pairs, 78 unsuited hands and 78 suited hands.

Your probability of getting a pocket pair 0.0588, Suited Cards 0.2353 and unsuited cards non-paired 0.7059. But, that is being dealt any hand. The probability of being dealt a specific pocket pair is much lower, e.g. AA is 0.00452 or odds of 220:1. The probability of being dealt any specific suited cards is even lower, e.g., AKs = 0.00302 or odds of 331:1. The probability of being dealt Aces or Kings, or Queens, or Jacks or Tens is 0.0226 or odds of 43.2:1. The probability of being dealt suited cards 10 or better, sometimes called suited Broadway, is 0.0302 or odds of 32.2:1. The probability of being dealt any two cards ten or greater (unsuited Broadway) is 0.157 or odds of 5.98:1).
[en.wikipedia.org])

Why am I bringing this up? Because most Texas Hold’em poker players know the basics of these probabilities, most professional poker players have memorized these probabilities and use that information to determine if they should fold their preflop cards most of the time; and yes, most if not all professional poker players play some form of very methodical game, which is why they fold most preflop cards.

I joined TPE – Tournament Poker Edge for about two months and watched a few videos of Casey Jarzabek - Bigdogpck5 (estimated winnings = 3.4 million) playing online tournaments. Guess what, he folded most of his starting hands; but, he did have some reasons for playing junk preflop occasionally, for the obvious reasons, e.g., he was button and it was folded to him and blinds were weak players that normally did not defend the blinds.

Anyway, if you don’t play those better starting pocket cards most of the time, you will lose all your money and go broke. This means you will be folding most of the time.

And, if you don’t play in a methodical planned fashion all the time, you will also lose all your money and go broke. Maybe, Gus Hansen has forgotten that and he is on Tilt. Or, did his luck just run out?

Anyone who thinks that poker is not mainly a game of luck is not analyzing the game properly. The statistics speak for themselves, especially for tournaments. You can view the stats on internet poker tournaments at Bluff. I think last time I look, you will make first place about 1% of the time, final tables about 5%, and cash 15% of the time, if you are one of the top 100 players. But, this can be very misleading when you read the stats, e.g., for example, you might cash in 15 tournaments out of 100 for $100, but paid $102 in entry fees. Some of these statistics can be seen at Bluff.com, but you must pay a monthly fee to see some of the data, e.g., ROI, average buy-in.

Information on winning in cash games is non-existent unless you are a super star like Hansen and someone has followed you and reported it on the internet. You will never see the actual ROI from cash games for anyone year-to-date or lifetime, including Superstars anywhere, especially not in poker magazines.

The myth that is perpetuated by the poker rags, e.g., Card Player, Bluff, etc. is that all the poker superstars have a very impressive and positive ROIs. Do they? Or, is that just hype to keep the fish in the game and lure new fish into the game?

After all, shiny lures catch lots of fish in the ocean.

The shining lure in poker is the mantra “You too can be a Poker Star and win lots of money.” This lure is gobbled up hook and sinker annually as new fish enter the poker world. These new fish are needed to feed the poker sharks and keep the casinos open.

It does appear that more fish are ignoring the shiny poker lure each year, as the number of poker players appears to be declining in the USA, if not the world.

Good Luck.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 14, 2013 12:16AM
GWL:

"...you were trying to distract the audience from the real argument I made, which was that the starting two cards are not a minor element of the game, which was your contention."

Wrong. This is what you posted:

"But when you do not start with the same cards or pieces like in Chess, the majority of the game is based on randomness."

The fallacy is the inference you drew from your proposition.

[And you probably didn't even realize you were creating a straw man argument by diverting attention to the definition of straw man.]

And, I never posted that the two starting cards were a minor element of the game.

You also have committed the fallacy of argument by verbosity.

"Fallacious arguments usually have the deceptive appearance of being good arguments."



Edited 6 time(s). Last edit at 08/15/2013 06:25AM by Axman.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 14, 2013 03:01PM
i'm like br. just glad to see anyone posting here again that's not an advertisement. lol have a good day today and a better day tomorrow you guys.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 14, 2013 07:18PM
Hi Wazy good to see you in here. I agree, I get all excited to see someone posting and be dammed it's an advertisement.
Maybe David can make a place for them and move that stuff there. LOL one of them calls them self gdrcheckraise that's too funny.
Have a great day
br
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 14, 2013 11:55PM
Hello BR & Wazy!

Re: Ads

There is a place for them, it's called "Delete". An alternate place would be Archives, but I prefer the first one.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 15, 2013 05:33AM
LOL I have no say so as to where or what to do with ads but Delete sounds fine to me.
br
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 15, 2013 06:59PM
Axman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> >
> "Fallacious arguments usually have the deceptive
> appearance of being good arguments."

Let's stop the bull and cut to the chase.

My argument:

Poker is a game of luck, no ifs ands or buts.

There are many variables involved in poker; mastery of which may mistakenly be called skill. If you get lucky, you just might guess those variables right, e.g., the range of your opponents' hands, fold equity, pot equity, soft game, and on and on and on ad nauseum. If your guesses are right more often than not, you just might win more games than you lose and make money; but, you might not. And, this is where you get into that new poker myth that in the long run those educated guesses magically become skill versus just lucky guesses.

The operative word here is guess. If most of your decisions are based on guesses, guess what? Guessing does not become a skill; it is still a guess, lucky or not based on the outcome.

When a carpenter cuts a piece of wood he follows a standard rule, “measure twice and cut once” to ensure he does not waste a lot of wood and that the cut piece fits whatever he is building. Carpentry is a skill because it does not involve guessing.

There is no dispute that most of these poker guesses can be based on observations and historical data, which makes them educated guesses; but they are still guesses. Betting on the ponies or sports are prime examples of where many make educated guesses too. Many make lots of money betting on ponies and sports, many lose lots of money, many make a living. Are the winners more skillful or just luckier?

“Professional sports bettors, by comparison, rarely sustain a long term winning percentage higher than 57 or 58 percent, and it's often as low as 54 or 55 percent. People find that hard to believe, and they understandably get even more skeptical when told that, for a genuine professional-level sports bettor, a long term winning expectation of 60% or more is actually too high…. With the break-even point at about 53%, genuine professional bettors know there is no tenable excuse to pass up propositions offering expectations of higher than, say, 55 percent. A small advantage applied over and over is awesomely effective.”
[www.professionalgambler.com]

Sure, in poker the players must do more guessing during the game itself (e.g., what is my opponent’s range of hands, fold equity, pot equity, why did my opponent only flat call, wouldn’t my opponent have bet a flop with an Ace, if he had an Ace, etc.) than just picking the right table or game whereas the sports better must only pick the right horse or team, which may be dependent on what track that horse is running at, or if it is a home game or an away game. There are other variables in sports or horse betting that are considered, e.g., wellness of horses and individual team members, which make the guesses much harder to make.

Up until recently, most people considered poker gambling or a game of chance, which is why most states’ gambling laws did not specifically state poker. The idea that poker is a skill seems to have arisen because of court battles over whether gambling laws were broken. It was then that the false premise that gambling was really like a job involving skill surfaced. But, why is that logic convoluted? If people only performed successfully at their jobs 50% or less of the time, they would be fired, unless they were in a guessing profession, e.g., stock traders, hedge fund managers, and had some big wins.

The poker industry and casinos rely on the adage “There’s a sucker born every minute” and must perpetuate the myth that you too or anyone can win money. The gambling industry spends hundreds of millions annually advertising to lure new gamblers; and, they know it is money well spent.

“Gambling generates more revenue than movies, spectator sports, theme parks, cruise ships and recorded music combined. Las Vegas is the fastest growing city in the U.S.A; players lose $6 billion a year at Las Vegas casinos.”
[www.pbs.org]

It is very sad that so much money is wasted on gambling, which only makes a few people wealthy; mainly the owners of the casinos. Too bad all casinos are not owned by the government like the big casinos in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; then these billions in profit could be used to help everyone and reduce our taxes, not just make a few people very wealthy.

Since my wife is from Winnipeg and we go there to visit, I have gambled in those two casinos mentioned above. They are no different than Casinos in the USA that are owned by a few wealthy people; but, the people of Winnipeg and Manitoba benefit from the profits, not just a few wealthy people. And, Canada pays a living minimum wage of about $10 per hour, even for tipped employees (waitresses, hair dressers, bar tenders, etc.) and McDonald, Wal-Mart, and most all employees are paid $10 per hour plus tips and Canada has Universal Health Care; and, businesses still are profitable. As a comparison, the Minimum wage in America is $7.25, and many tipped employees are paid under $3 per hour.
[en.wikipedia.org]

Another subject I would love to debate is my contention that internet gambling will be a net loss for society. Land based gambling provides thousands of jobs; versus the few jobs created by internet poker, which actually will destroy thousands of jobs and destroy the lives of many people who rely on jobs in the land based gambling market, which includes other industries that benefit from land based gambling, e.g., hotels, airlines, restaurants, etc. And, the myth that internet gambling will create more tax revenue cannot be supported because it is a lie. The money people spend on internet gambling can’t be spent on other gambling, so tax revenue goes up for internet gambling, and goes down for non-internet gambling, but not by the same amount. People that drive to land based casinos also buy gas (decrease in gasoline excise and sales taxes) pay highway tolls, etc., so those revenues go down. Internet gambling will be a net loss, especially as more and more people stay home and thousands of jobs are lost in casinos, hotels, etc., which will also reduce the amount of state and federal income taxes collected, and increase the number of people that will be out of work and be on unemployment and welfare. Most of the studies that say internet gambling will be a plus ignores these other factors in their calculation; most of the studies are just be lies and paid for by the gambling industry.

Anyway, I digress from the main topic, which is that poker is a game of luck.

One of my favorite poker magazine writers is Steve Zolotow, who writes a monthly article for Card Player Magazine. Here is some of what he said in Card Player – Vol. 26/No. 15, July 24, 2013:

“Some Thoughts From the 2013 WSOP”

“It is impossible to play enough tournaments to evaluate your ability based on results.”

“Why play tournaments?”

"What is the lure of tournament play? Part of it is the lottery syndrome. Everyone wants to start with a small buy-in and win a fortune. Some old timers used to refer to this as “turning a match stick into a lumber yard.”

The lure of poker in general is the thought that you too can make easy money; you can’t because, like the lottery, poker is a game of chance or luck and 99% or of the people that play will lose and will have a negative lifetime ROI – Return on Investment. And, the 1% that do make money are just luckier in the long run, unless they are Gus Hansen, for example, but he makes lots of money from real jobs and investments.

And, all the people that say they play poker for the fun of it are liars, except the people that play penny-ante poker at home.


Playing poker is the same as:



Good Luck!
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 15, 2013 08:42PM
I hope that's your last word. I grow weary of the yammering and verbosity.

But at least now I see where your politics is influencing your opinions.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 15, 2013 11:18PM
OK George you just called me a liar, I do not play for profit I play for fun and hope to break even, if I lose so be it and if I win a little all the better because I give all my winnings to our local food bank and this year has been a good one so far. So your statement is not 100% true maybe 99.9% but not 100%
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 16, 2013 03:31PM
I sure hope I am right that I play for fun and entertainment because I certainly don't make enough to justify playing for profit. lol especially since so many sites haven't paid me all my winnings lmao.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 17, 2013 03:11AM
IF you play for fun, you would not care if you broke even.

Therefore, you too do care about about making money, everyone does; so, I did not call you a liar.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       August 18, 2013 05:25AM
George you know it don't matter what anyone says you will try to turn it around in your favor. I play for fun and to kill time take it anyway you want it, in your mind it's your way or no way and if you think that every one plays for profit then no one will convince you of anything different.
br
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       September 03, 2013 01:37AM
br549jdc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> George you know it don't matter what anyone says
> you will try to turn it around in your favor. I
> play for fun and to kill time take it anyway you
> want it, in your mind it's your way or no way and
> if you think that every one plays for profit then
> no one will convince you of anything different.
> br

Whatever.

Again, you would not play for fun if there was no money involved, regardless of the nonsense reasons you have just stated. You could play poker at many sites for no money, but you don't.

You may kill time, and it is recreation, and you are bored or whatever and you don't care if you make a profit. But,the bottom line is that you play for money. The money is the magnet, the thrill. I am sure if you made a profit that that would be good too.

You could play at free sites where no memberships are charged and money is never exchanged; but, what fun would that be.
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       September 03, 2013 11:44PM
George if you would spend more time looking for a job and trying to show your skills instead of being an asshole trying to make everyone look wrong and if you could find someone willing to work with a asshole like you, you just might be working. From what I have read in your post here you say your a CPA and are well educated, so why not use your smarts and do some real networking that could get you a job? Quit putting everyone down it makes you look stupid. No one is wrong 100% of the time unless they are talking to you.
br
Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
avatar Subject :  Re: Online Poker May Be Considered Illegal Gambling Whether Based On Skill Or Not
Date:       September 04, 2013 04:27AM
br549jdc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> George if you would spend more time looking for a
> job and trying to show your skills instead of
> being an asshole trying to make everyone look
> wrong and if you could find someone willing to
> work with a asshole like you, you just might be
> working. From what I have read in your post here
> you say your a CPA and are well educated, so why
> not use your smarts and do some real networking
> that could get you a job? Quit putting everyone
> down it makes you look stupid. No one is wrong
> 100% of the time unless they are talking to you.
> br

I was not trying to make you look wrong, you are wrong.

You are not even honest enough to admit why you gamble.

Very pathetic.

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